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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1400+ | 100% | — | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-639 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-679 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-719 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-759 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 760-799 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800-839 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 840-879 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 880-919 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 920-959 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 960-999 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000-1039 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1040-1079 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1080-1119 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1120-1159 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1160-1199 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1200-1239 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1240-1279 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1280-1319 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1320-1359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1360-1399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 278d |  kirito00 | 1400+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,979 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 278d | gevgh | 1400+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,149 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d |  Alphax | 1400+ | SellYes>99¢ | $5,570 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 279d | folioquant | 1360-1399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,029 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 279d |  Opposite | 1400+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,973 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 279d |  BoringPunter | 1400+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,822 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 279d | BoringPunter | 1360-1399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,005 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d |  Rikkert | 1360-1399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,350 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d |  Wenkie3 | 1360-1399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | KingOfLol2 fills | 1360-1399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,308 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | KingOfLol | 1400+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,419 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 280d | KingOfLol2 fills | 1320-1359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,894 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | KingOfLol | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,702 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | Orange-Productivity2 fills | 1240-1279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,997 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | Alphax | 1400+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,565 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 280d | KingOfLol | 1160-1199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,000 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 280d |  imp | 1400+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 280d |  perps-01sqko85 | 1400+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,067 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 280d | niuniuhgir | 1120-1159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 280d | KingOfLol4 fills | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,303 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d | yunfatm | 1400+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,761 | −$55 −2.0% | — |
| 281d | KingOfLol3 fills | 1200-1239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,633 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | KingOfLol5 fills | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,181 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | KingOfLol2 fills | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,385 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | Orange-Productivity4 fills | 1120-1159 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,934 | −$12 −0.2% | — |
| 281d | folioquant | 1240-1279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 281d | KingOfLol3 fills | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,367 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | KingOfLol | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,575 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | miyugyiftu66 | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,079 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | rated | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | rated | 1080-1119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 281d | rated | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | Orange-Productivity2 fills | 1080-1119 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,929 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 282d |  opolon | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,366 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | irene0823 | 1400+ | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,580 | −$50 −3.2% | — |
| 282d | irene0823 | 1400+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$30 +1.9% | 20 |
| 282d | rated | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,032 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d |  Kuukskes | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,950 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | zxvzxvsauf745as | 1320-1359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,536 | +$18 +0.7% | 20 |
| 283d | gasjkfqga42sa | 1320-1359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,627 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 |
| 283d | ageiwjsad546wqer | 1320-1359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,627 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 |
| 283d | agmsjksfjqw5632zx | 1320-1359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,536 | +$18 +0.7% | 20 |
| 283d | KingOfLol | 1080-1119 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,510 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | KingOfLol | 1120-1159 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,762 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | KingOfLol | 920-959 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,672 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | KingOfLol | 1080-1119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,510 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | jijihaoda | 880-919 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,189 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | Orange-Productivity2 fills | 1000-1039 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,936 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | jijihaoda | 1040-1079 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,796 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | jijihaoda | 960-999 | SellNo>99¢ | $28,971 | −$29 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | jijihaoda | 920-959 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,980 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | Orange-Productivity2 fills | 1040-1079 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,944 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | jijihaoda | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,827 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | Orange-Productivity2 fills | 960-999 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,952 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | Maddo | 880-919 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,833 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 286d | Phoro | 840-879 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,836 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 286d | Waveo | 840-879 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,814 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 286d | jijihaoda | 960-999 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,333 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 286d | opolon2 fills | 880-919 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,145 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 286d | Rikkert | 880-919 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
Vladski5 shares
Kiwyiy15,000 shares
98123808765433223,120 shares
LaBefana2,778 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of January 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1400+ means the market gives it about 100%.