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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 206d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b044 fills | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,478 | +$100 +0.4% | 4 |
| 206d |  Chims | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,666 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 207d |  beenraping10 fills | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo>99¢ | $41,061 | +$189 +0.5% | 4 |
| 210d | dzsibenaja | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,192 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 210d |  SaddamHusseinHidingSpot5 fills | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,779 | +$72 +0.3% | 4 |
| 211d | ChampaLiberation | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,752 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 212d |  DFK3 fills | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,147 | −$73 −0.7% | — |
| 221d | DFK9 fills | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $28,618 | +$534 +1.9% | 4 |
| 222d |  twe2nty | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,210 | −$15 −1.2% | — |
| 226d |  Ahpo3 fills | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,324 | −$198 −4.6% | — |
| 233d | Ahpo | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,149 | +$21 +1.8% | 4 |
| 235d | chocolate123 | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,616 | −$24 −1.5% | — |
| 236d |  tourists2 fills | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,529 | −$57 −1.6% | — |
| 240d |  Tenebrus7 | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo100¢ | $3,224 | −$16 −0.5% | — |
| 240d | Aussiegroyper | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellYes1¢ → 0¢ | $1,554 | +$1,554 +100% | — |
| 241d | Tenebrus7 | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | +$40 +3.4% | 4 |
| 241d | Chims | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,836 | +$55 +3.0% | 4 |
| 257d | twe2nty | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,565 | +$105 +1.2% | 4 |
| 275d |  DegenerateJanet2 fills | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,727 | −$44 −1.6% | — |
| 277d |  Oompa-Loompa | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,409 | −$24 −1.7% | — |
| 278d |  IwillWin | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,940 | +$60 +1.5% | 4 |
| 278d | Contrarian - 7451 | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,634 | −$55 −1.5% | — |
| 288d | k00pa | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$27 +1.5% | 4 |
| 288d | sagishi | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,643 | −$61 −1.3% | — |
| 289d | Contrarian - 7451 | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$27 +2.0% | 4 |
| 289d | tourists | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,532 | +$54 +2.1% | 4 |
| 290d | sagishi | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,540 | +$63 +1.4% | 4 |
| 290d | DegenerateJanet | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$38 +2.9% | 4 |
ImJustKen2,555 shares
jaycz1,108 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.