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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 100% | +9 pts | +97 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +8 pts | +95 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +8 pts | +69 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 157d |  iutwpfal | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,136 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 157d |  Gleaming-Pear7 fills | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $35,161 | +$110 +0.3% | 20 |
| 157d | Stonktrader | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,887 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 157d | Stonktrader | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,807 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 157d |  The-Joker | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,572 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 157d | Gleaming-Pear3 fills | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,102 | +$42 +0.4% | 20 |
| 157d |  tourists2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,297 | +$24 +0.3% | 20 |
| 157d | ScaryDream | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,500 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 157d | 0x8747…551a | May 31 | BuyNo7¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 21 |
| 157d |  doubleone22 fills | May 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,317 | −$36 −0.8% | — |
| 157d | Gleaming-Pear | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,418 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 157d | Nietzzzzsche | May 31 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,721 | −$157 −4.2% | — |
| 157d |  Da-Joker3 fills | May 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,197 | +$176 +2.8% | 20 |
| 157d | OnlySafeBets | May 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,673 | +$20 +1.2% | 20 |
| 157d | aviato | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 157d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | May 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$16 +1.4% | 20 |
| 157d | Da-Joker2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,179 | +$143 +2.8% | 20 |
| 157d | midnighttrader | June 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | −$35 −2.9% | — |
| 157d | Somber-Ice | May 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | +$61 +5.3% | 21 |
| 158d | Da-Joker | July 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,550 | +$110 +4.3% | 20 |
| 158d | General-Security | May 31 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | +$180 +9.9% | 20 |
| 158d | midnighttrader | May 31 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | −$110 −10% | — |
| 158d | OnlySafeBets | June 30 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$81 +8.0% | 20 |
| 159d | OnlySafeBets2 fills | May 31 | BuyNo22¢ → 0¢ | $2,264 | −$2,264 −100% | 24 |
| 159d | mitsusan2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $5,945 | +$1,733 +29% | 20 |
| 159d | pitya2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $5,295 | +$1,830 +35% | 20 |
| 159d | imthetrueghost2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $4,876 | +$1,037 +21% | 20 |
| 159d | The-Joker | May 31 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$401 +40% | 20 |
| 160d | Hospitable-Infarction | May 31 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,349 | −$651 −28% | — |
| 160d |  dumbfuqLIQUIDITYprovider | May 31 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,675 | −$409 −24% | — |
| 160d | rasterzed7b5s | May 31 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | +$184 +16% | 20 |
| 161d | steveZhouOKX | May 31 | BuyNo19¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 22 |
| 161d | 0x9941e...5C52f7B | May 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,068 | +$161 +15% | 20 |
| 161d |  Aware-Typeface | June 30 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,497 | −$191 −13% | — |
| 161d | imthetrueghost2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$362 +9.1% | 20 |
| 161d | imthetrueghost | June 30 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$172 +8.6% | 20 |
| 161d | h038596027355 | May 31 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | +$342 +27% | 20 |
| 161d | h038596027355 | May 31 | SellNo26¢ → 0¢ | $1,178 | +$1,178 +100% | — |
| 162d | notsatoshi1 | May 31 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,901 | +$1,331 +46% | 20 |
| 162d | The-Joker | June 30 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,250 | −$750 −33% | — |
| 162d |  monstur | May 31 | BuyNo52¢ → 0¢ | $1,868 | −$1,868 −100% | 20 |
| 162d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | July 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,662 | +$248 +15% | 20 |
| 162d |  Parz1vaI | June 30 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,474 | +$476 +32% | 20 |
| 162d |  GollumGekko | July 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,904 | +$100 +5.3% | 20 |
| 162d | precisedevice | June 30 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,097 | +$274 +25% | 20 |
| 162d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | June 30 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,456 | +$364 +25% | 20 |
| 162d | precisedevice | May 31 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,804 | +$396 +22% | 20 |
| 162d | The-Joker2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $2,969 | +$1,720 +58% | 20 |
| 162d | The-Joker | May 31 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,787 | −$1,787 −100% | 20 |
| 162d | corral | May 31 | SellNo55¢ → 0¢ | $2,855 | +$2,855 +100% | — |
| 163d | warlasfutpro | May 31 | SellNo89¢ → 0¢ | $2,670 | +$2,670 +100% | — |
| 164d | corral2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $2,967 | −$2,967 −100% | 20 |
| 164d | iutwpfal | June 30 | BuyNo86¢ → 0¢ | $2,323 | −$2,323 −100% | 20 |
| 167d | Parz1vaI3 fills | May 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 0¢ | $7,408 | −$7,408 −100% | 20 |
| 171d | imthetrueghost | June 30 | SellNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,096 | +$1,096 +100% | — |
| 173d | midnighttrader | May 31 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$338 +17% | 20 |
| 173d |  70cx577x6f7 | June 30 | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $2,284 | +$1,442 +63% | 20 |
| 176d | Parz1vaI | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,383 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | dumbfuqLIQUIDITYprovider | June 30 | SellNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,015 | +$1,015 +100% | — |
| 178d | dumbfuqLIQUIDITYprovider | June 30 | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | −$1,020 −100% | 20 |
DonAntimatter1,066 shares
d1zup4,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.5 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.5 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3, similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 2.5. Products labeled as Gemini 4 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. Additional Gemini 3 models (e.g. a release of Gemini 3 Flash-lite) will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for May 31 means the market gives it about 100%.