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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 22 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 29 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | +10 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 30 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 27 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 26 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 28 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 21 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 23 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 24 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 25 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 203d | Misguided-File | March 31 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,279 | +$436 +19% | 20 |
| 206d | glanzberg | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 207d | glanzberg | March 29 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,960 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 207d | oidoioi | March 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 207d |  ZhangMuZhi.. | March 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,067 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 207d | zxc368 | March 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,996 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 207d | yougotme | March 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,364 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 207d | Sloppydo3 fills | March 29 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,633 | +$350 +9.6% | 23 |
| 207d | Awkward-Bride | March 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,221 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 207d | Sloppydo | March 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,482 | +$55 +2.2% | 21 |
| 207d | WHATTHE123 | March 30 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | −$253 −23% | — |
| 208d | WHATTHE123 | March 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,291 | +$71 +5.5% | 21 |
| 208d | Mithrandiric | March 29 | SellYes31¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | −$2,248 −220% | — |
| 208d | Mithrandiric | March 29 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,748 | +$521 +19% | 23 |
| 208d |  cambridgeisaac | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,370 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 208d |  ErnstKuzorra | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 208d |  Gohst | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,113 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 208d |  takemymoney2 fills | March 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $35,212 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 208d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042 fills | March 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $38,171 | +$179 +0.5% | 20 |
| 208d |  BuyNauCars4 fills | March 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $61,413 | +$80 +0.1% | 20 |
| 208d | FlyingPlaty | March 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,637 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 208d |  Nik-2 fills | March 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,596 | +$76 +0.5% | 20 |
| 208d |  SmallFishInWhaleStomach4 fills | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $52,047 | −$247 −0.5% | — |
| 208d | Alphius | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,518 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 209d |  abhionpoly | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,035 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 209d | poorsob | March 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,494 | +$36 +0.3% | 20 |
| 209d |  1BeaNataTime | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,524 | −$29 −0.2% | — |
| 209d | BuyNauCars | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $141,817 | −$284 −0.2% | — |
| 209d | thiswhyilosemoney | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,354 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 209d |  0xRacist | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,422 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | secondpoorest | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,978 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | PainStealer | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,142 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 209d |  JoachimPeiper | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,161 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 209d |  Rommel💀 | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,660 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | stealer | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,319 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 209d |  Burnmoneyuser | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,685 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 209d |  Infringe | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,466 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | Alphius | March 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,522 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 209d |  The-Joker | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,379 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,054 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | Trustinghorse3 fills | March 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,587 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 209d | peter239784 | March 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,814 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | Sloppydo | March 27 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$23 +1.6% | 20 |
| 209d | Trustinghorse | March 28 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | +$21 +1.6% | 20 |
| 209d | 1BeaNataTime | March 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,444 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 209d |  Debosnys | March 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,558 | +$96 +0.9% | 20 |
| 209d | jdcgo | March 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,936 | +$64 +1.3% | 20 |
| 209d | abhionpoly | March 22 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,463 | +$76 +3.1% | 21 |
| 209d | Sloppydo | March 28 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,219 | +$189 +16% | 22 |
| 210d |  vinii | March 22 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,263 | −$87 −3.9% | — |
| 210d |  BBL-Drizzy | March 22 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,562 | −$143 −9.2% | — |
| 210d |  Car | March 22 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$137 +13% | 22 |
| 210d |  Whylik | March 22 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | −$271 −23% | — |
| 210d | peter239784 | March 22 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$159 +16% | 22 |
| 210d | Rommel💀 | March 22 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,233 | +$456 +37% | 25 |
| 210d | thiswhyilosemoney | March 22 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$32 +3.1% | 21 |
| 210d | Infringe2 fills | March 22 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,163 | +$197 +9.1% | 21 |
| 210d | Burnmoneyuser | March 22 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,987 | +$222 +11% | 22 |
| 210d | JoachimPeiper | March 22 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,671 | +$435 +16% | 22 |
| 210d |  ScottyNooo | March 22 | BuyNo40¢ → 0¢ | $1,854 | −$1,854 −100% | 23 |
duderr19,581 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 22 means the market gives it about 100%.