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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +5 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 780d | professorx | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris>99¢ | $9,338 | +$9 +0.1% | 10 |
| 780d |  LlamaEnjoyer | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris>99¢ | $2,698 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 780d |  TimeQuestion4 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris98¢ → 100¢ | $30,091 | +$524 +1.7% | 10 |
| 780d |  meowinglion | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris100¢ | $3,575 | +$18 +0.5% | 10 |
| 781d | IndoMania10 | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris99¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | −$20 −1.5% | — |
| 781d |  RememberAmalek3 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris85¢ → 100¢ | $35,863 | −$6,463 −18% | — |
| 781d |  50Whence | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris99¢ → 100¢ | $1,346 | +$8 +0.6% | 10 |
| 781d | IndoMania105 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris83¢ → 100¢ | $7,404 | +$1,531 +21% | 10 |
| 781d |  JJo3 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris94¢ → 100¢ | $7,987 | +$551 +6.9% | 10 |
| 781d | SpikedTurnip3 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris92¢ → 100¢ | $6,590 | −$592 −9.0% | — |
| 782d |  HaterzLoserz22 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris84¢ → 100¢ | $176,200 | +$33,753 +19% | 10 |
| 782d | Notable-Down | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris89¢ → 100¢ | $10,097 | −$1,278 −13% | — |
| 782d |  Whome | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris90¢ → 100¢ | $4,505 | −$495 −11% | — |
| 782d | Notable-Down | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris90¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$500 +11% | 11 |
| 783d | Eyebrows2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris86¢ → 100¢ | $3,234 | −$545 −17% | — |
| 783d |  pocahontasporker | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris85¢ → 100¢ | $2,767 | +$488 +18% | 10 |
| 783d | squirrel-farmer2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris51¢ → 100¢ | $3,337 | +$3,155 +95% | 10 |
| 783d | BakktIsLive | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris73¢ → 100¢ | $3,732 | −$1,359 −36% | — |
| 784d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris90¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | +$138 +11% | 10 |
| 784d | Champ6 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris96¢ → 100¢ | $91,707 | +$4,073 +4.4% | 10 |
| 784d | RememberAmalek6 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris80¢ → 100¢ | $22,742 | +$5,742 +25% | 10 |
| 784d | Folletin | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris93¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$86 +8.0% | 10 |
| 784d | J.V. | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris91¢ → 100¢ | $2,004 | +$196 +9.8% | 10 |
| 784d | unscented-nerd - 5386 | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris91¢ → 100¢ | $3,382 | +$340 +10% | 10 |
| 784d | aaabbb2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris76¢ → 100¢ | $6,725 | −$2,094 −31% | — |
| 784d |  YoungGriff3 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris61¢ → 100¢ | $6,438 | +$4,031 +63% | 10 |
| 784d |  Slimedart9 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris80¢ → 100¢ | $14,821 | +$3,780 +26% | 10 |
| 784d |  Mr-Yolos4 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris82¢ → 100¢ | $11,935 | +$2,612 +22% | 10 |
| 784d | jl3128776 | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris84¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | −$230 −20% | — |
| 784d | Slimedart3 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris72¢ → 100¢ | $4,010 | −$1,590 −40% | — |
| 784d | SlavaUkraini2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris80¢ → 100¢ | $16,024 | −$4,006 −25% | — |
| 785d | mmmpieee | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris79¢ → 100¢ | $1,376 | +$367 +27% | 10 |
| 785d | ekimika3 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris77¢ → 100¢ | $8,367 | +$2,436 +29% | 10 |
| 785d |  TheCoconut2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris81¢ → 100¢ | $6,226 | +$1,495 +24% | 10 |
| 785d | aaabbb8 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris75¢ → 100¢ | $17,806 | +$6,037 +34% | 10 |
| 785d | jespertjee | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris71¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | −$448 −42% | — |
| 785d | Whome5 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris70¢ → 100¢ | $12,183 | +$5,119 +42% | 10 |
| 785d |  EdgyUsername12 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris63¢ → 100¢ | $18,372 | −$10,724 −58% | — |
| 785d | SpikedTurnip4 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris77¢ → 100¢ | $8,302 | +$2,416 +29% | 10 |
| 785d | jl31287762 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris75¢ → 100¢ | $6,367 | +$2,076 +33% | 10 |
| 785d | EdgyUsername13 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris48¢ → 100¢ | $20,565 | +$21,980 +107% | 11 |
| 785d |  LostMyLifeSavingsIn2024 | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris59¢ → 100¢ | $1,857 | −$1,283 −69% | — |
| 785d | LostMyLifeSavingsIn2024 | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris68¢ → 100¢ | $1,362 | +$638 +47% | 10 |
| 785d | ekimika2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris58¢ → 100¢ | $6,201 | −$4,408 −71% | — |
| 785d | MalikNabers | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellTrump35¢ → 0¢ | $1,275 | +$1,275 +100% | — |
| 785d | MalikNabers2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris76¢ → 100¢ | $8,317 | −$2,699 −32% | — |
| 785d |  scattering2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris82¢ → 100¢ | $3,783 | +$845 +22% | 10 |
| 786d | OriginalGeezer | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris95¢ → 100¢ | $1,514 | +$82 +5.4% | 10 |
| 786d | L114 | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris92¢ → 100¢ | $2,944 | +$252 +8.6% | 10 |
| 786d | MalikNabers4 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris77¢ → 100¢ | $9,902 | +$2,880 +29% | 10 |
| 786d |  beastishngry | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris81¢ → 100¢ | $1,868 | +$438 +23% | 10 |
| 786d |  dreamer | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris75¢ → 100¢ | $2,250 | +$750 +33% | 10 |
| 786d |  emoney2 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris79¢ → 100¢ | $6,806 | +$1,809 +27% | 10 |
| 786d | TheOneB | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris79¢ → 100¢ | $1,881 | −$500 −27% | — |
| 786d | GenericUser12346 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris71¢ → 100¢ | $12,431 | −$5,059 −41% | — |
| 786d |  BustedCungly | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris73¢ → 100¢ | $6,480 | −$2,396 −37% | — |
| 787d |  Gaeten-Dugas6 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | SellHarris70¢ → 100¢ | $10,742 | −$4,602 −43% | — |
| 787d |  cashmoney3692 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris74¢ → 100¢ | $2,925 | +$1,036 +35% | 10 |
| 787d | Munners | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris70¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$600 +43% | 10 |
| 787d | Gaeten-Dugas3 fills | If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls? | BuyHarris53¢ → 100¢ | $8,814 | +$7,677 +87% | 10 |
This market is on if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drops out of the 2024 presidential race, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump’s relative position will improve more. Resolution will be based on the Real Clear Politics (RCP) daily polling averages chart labeled "Trump vs. Harris", available at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris. The market will resolve according to the RCP polling averages for Trump and Harris on the day RFK Jr. drops out (Day 0) compared with the polling averages for Trump and Harris on the the seventh day after his withdrawal (Day 7) once RCP has published numbers for the the eighth day (Day 8). If Harris's polling average increases more/decreases less than Trump's, the market will resolve to "Harris". If Trump's polling average increases more/decreases less than Harris's, the market will resolve to "Trump". If both candidates' polling averages increase/decrease by the same amount, the market will resolve to 50-50. If RFK Jr. does not drop out by October 27, 2024, 11:59 PM ET the market will resolve to 50-50.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.