Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 20% | +1 pts | +5 pts | 15¢ · 25¢ (10¢) | $221 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17d | nedsta2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 80¢ | $3,200 | −$307 −9.6% | 12 |
| 27d | barcodesellout | December 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 80¢ | $1,290 | −$90 −7.0% | 13 |
| 105d |  20YrsOfBoredom | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 80¢ | $1,100 | +$28 +2.6% | 19 |
| 114d | FlyingPlaty | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 175d |  beenraping | Insurrection Act invoked by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,047 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 175d | Michael5289 | Insurrection Act invoked by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d | lorenzcurve | Insurrection Act invoked by April 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,765 | +$19 +1.1% | 4 |
| 203d | Gladius7 | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | −$199 −18% | — |
| 203d | Gladius7 | December 31 | SellNo68¢ → 80¢ | $1,011 | −$185 −18% | — |
| 205d |  ChetterHummin | December 31 | BuyNo73¢ → 80¢ | $1,097 | +$101 +9.2% | 22 |
| 213d |  Aslan2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo70¢ → 80¢ | $2,470 | +$336 +14% | 24 |
| 215d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042 fills | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,958 | +$63 +2.1% | 4 |
| 217d |  paddaa | December 31 | SellNo69¢ → 80¢ | $1,076 | −$164 −15% | — |
| 218d |  elmcap2 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,524 | +$74 +2.1% | 4 |
| 224d | Retired-Davis | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | −$180 −13% | — |
| 225d | Gladius7 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | −$42 −4.1% | — |
| 236d | dube | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,162 | −$61 −5.2% | — |
| 240d |  Chessmaster2026 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | +$45 +3.8% | 4 |
| 250d | Anointed-Connect | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | +$74 +5.3% | 4 |
| 253d | jesse2025 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,054 | −$230 −7.5% | — |
| 258d |  Epstein | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $6,440 | +$560 +8.7% | 4 |
| 259d | scuf | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,692 | −$162 −9.6% | — |
| 260d | Cuco84 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$128 +6.4% | 4 |
| 261d | jesse2025 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$283 +9.4% | 4 |
| 265d | barcodesellout | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 266d |  Rasalgethi | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,986 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 266d | notssf3 | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,460 | +$12 +0.8% | 4 |
| 266d | hesitant | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,545 | −$19 −1.2% | — |
| 267d | treblatecram | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | −$18 −1.6% | — |
| 267d |  otarril | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,497 | −$20 −1.3% | — |
| 267d | xNull | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | −$7 −0.7% | — |
| 269d |  Tejeru | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,515 | −$48 −1.9% | — |
| 269d | Huludubu4 fills | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,268 | −$113 −1.8% | — |
| 269d | Tejeru | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$25 +1.2% | 4 |
| 270d | jaja5050 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $3,664 | +$1,571 +43% | 4 |
| 271d | Huludubu3 fills | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $5,137 | +$716 +14% | 4 |
| 272d |  Bperil2 fills | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,966 | −$163 −5.5% | — |
| 273d | beijin | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,759 | −$871 −32% | — |
| 273d | fineth | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,143 | −$677 −32% | — |
| 273d | thereis | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,774 | −$876 −32% | — |
| 273d | anoin123 | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | −$38 −3.6% | — |
| 274d | diadjaid | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | −$75 −5.3% | — |
| 274d | thereis | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,738 | +$913 +33% | 4 |
| 274d | beijin | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,723 | +$908 +33% | 4 |
| 274d | fineth | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,115 | +$705 +33% | 4 |
| 274d | Odysseus7 | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | −$124 −11% | — |
| 274d | Thin-Print5 fills | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $10,286 | −$836 −8.1% | — |
| 275d | Wasteful-FanlightNew account | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,195 | +$316 +7.5% | 7 |
| 275d | Watery-ScenarioNew account | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,908 | +$122 +6.4% | 7 |
| 276d | Retired-Davis | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,579 | +$448 +13% | 4 |
| 276d | Retired-Davis | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | BuyNo59¢ → 100¢ | $1,301 | +$889 +68% | 4 |
| 276d | VVS-UNINSTALL | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,752 | +$248 +14% | 4 |
| 276d |  just.some.guy.20262 fills | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $4,890 | +$2,210 +45% | 4 |
| 276d | Thin-Print2 fills | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $11,639 | +$1,662 +14% | 4 |
| 276d | Gladius72 fills | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,470 | +$419 +17% | 4 |
| 277d | xTentacionxx | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,368 | −$239 −17% | — |
| 278d | i.am.a.turkey. | December 31 | BuyYes57¢ → 20¢ | $1,313 | −$852 −65% | 24 |
| 278d | i.am.a.turkey. | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,280 | +$352 +15% | 4 |
| 278d | xTentacionxx | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$258 +19% | 4 |
| 278d |  siick | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BuyYes35¢ → 0¢ | $1,304 | −$1,304 −100% | 5 |
nufonehudis671,690 sharesChetterHummin3,877 sharesAslan3,508 shares
vinii1,105 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 20¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 20%.