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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 8 | 100% | +13 pts | +17 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 9 | 0% | 0 pts | −83 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 10 | 0% | −1 pts | −86 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 3 | 100% | +6 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 2 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 7 | 100% | +7 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 4 | 100% | +2 pts | +14 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 5 | 100% | +6 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 6 | 100% | +3 pts | +18 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 11 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 12 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 13 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 14 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 16 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 17 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 18 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 19 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 20 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 22 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 23 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 24 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 25 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 26 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 27 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 28 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 29 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193d | April 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,817 | +$56 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 194d | April 10 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,033 | +$142 +0.8% | 20 | |
| 194d | ddolsw123r | April 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | Peppery-Espalier | April 10 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,523 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 195d | Votei14Voude22 | April 10 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,533 | −$55 −2.2% | — |
| 195d | Tbhidk-17672 fills | April 9 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,326 | −$15 −0.3% | — |
| 195d | bmm23 fills | April 10 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,356 | −$91 −1.2% | — |
| 195d | 65765757 | April 10 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | −$7 −0.7% | — |
| 195d | April 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,200 | +$54 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 196d | Kdjdjd | April 10 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 196d | jiyge2 fills | April 9 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,817 | +$47 +0.7% | 20 |
| 196d | Tbhidk-17675 fills | April 9 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,095 | +$106 +1.5% | 20 |
| 196d | LulaVaiPerder | April 10 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,101 | −$40 −1.9% | — |
| 196d | Wagmi420 | April 10 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | −$22 −1.8% | — |
| 196d | April 10 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,342 | −$14 −1.0% | — | |
| 196d | April 10 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,674 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 | |
| 196d | April 9 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,534 | −$9 −0.6% | — | |
| 196d | 0xe617…f251 | April 10 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$27 +1.4% | 20 |
| 197d | 65765757 | April 9 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 197d | bmm2 | April 10 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$447 +6.4% | 20 |
| 197d | Votei14Voude223 fills | April 10 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $5,438 | +$556 +10% | 20 |
| 197d | LulaVaiPerder | April 10 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | +$59 +5.3% | 20 |
| 197d | Tender-Hire2 fills | April 9 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,713 | +$65 +1.8% | 20 |
| 197d | April 9 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,883 | +$68 +3.6% | 20 | |
| 198d | April 9 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,341 | −$86 −6.4% | — | |
| 198d | Wilted-Opportunity | April 10 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,379 | +$198 +14% | 20 |
| 198d | gilibh709 | April 9 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$196 +18% | 20 |
| 198d | mastriacomo | April 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,250 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 198d | Active-Felony | April 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,224 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 198d | zxc368 | April 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,844 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 198d | ddolsw123r2 fills | April 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,497 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,003 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 198d | Flimsy-Fibre | April 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$36 +0.4% | 20 |
| 198d | L.X | April 8 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,488 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 198d | Sloppydo | April 8 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,491 | +$48 +1.1% | 20 |
| 198d | Sonix | April 8 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,186 | +$38 +3.2% | 20 |
| 198d | Tbhidk-1767 | April 8 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,930 | +$70 +3.6% | 20 |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,289 | +$148 +6.5% | 20 | |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,939 | +$81 +4.2% | 20 | |
| 198d | 6jnx7xdnbij1 | April 9 | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 20 |
| 198d | Trustinghorse | April 8 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,296 | +$173 +4.0% | 20 |
| 198d | ThaDude | April 8 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,602 | +$148 +4.1% | 20 |
| 198d | April 8 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,178 | −$266 −6.4% | — | |
| 198d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | April 8 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,265 | +$123 +3.8% | 20 |
| 198d | Optimal-Cascade3 fills | April 8 | BuyNo21¢ → 0¢ | $6,402 | −$6,402 −100% | 30 |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,916 | +$78 +4.1% | 20 | |
| 198d | oidoioi | April 8 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,820 | +$180 +6.4% | 20 |
| 198d | n1414 | April 8 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$76 +7.0% | 20 |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | +$92 +8.7% | 20 | |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $10,588 | +$2,796 +26% | 20 | |
| 198d | Willing-Tactics | April 8 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,631 | +$327 +12% | 20 |
| 198d | Huge-PickNew account | April 8 | SellNo22¢ → 0¢ | $1,058 | +$1,058 +100% | — |
| 198d | troim | April 8 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $6,240 | +$1,760 +28% | 20 |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,808 | +$792 +28% | 20 | |
| 198d | cashy2 fills | April 8 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $5,395 | +$3,743 +69% | 20 |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyNo29¢ → 0¢ | $1,507 | −$1,507 −100% | 22 | |
| 198d | 65765757 | April 9 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$777 +43% | 20 |
| 198d | MelissaCraig1098 | April 9 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$582 +56% | 20 |
| 198d | Spectacular-PhilanthropyNew account | April 8 | BuyNo9¢ → 0¢ | $1,099 | −$1,099 −100% | 30 |
| 198d | April 8 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$61 +5.3% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 8 means the market gives it about 100%.