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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +3 pts | +12 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 473d | SaylorMoon4 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $26,098 | +$4,533 +17% | 5 |
| 473d |  HolyMoses72 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes100¢ | $7,738 | +$39 +0.5% | 4 |
| 473d | haraya2 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,984 | +$82 +2.7% | 4 |
| 475d |  Dumbeldor2003 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | −$49 −4.4% | — |
| 475d | F-00 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,389 | −$63 −4.5% | — |
| 477d |  mr.ozi2 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,385 | +$627 +19% | 5 |
| 478d | xstm | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | −$138 −14% | — |
| 480d | 0x7d17741e8bF3 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $8,467 | −$2,107 −25% | — |
| 480d |  Intendant-Jean-Talon | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $5,818 | −$1,870 −32% | — |
| 481d | NeIsLoIe | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,513 | −$504 −20% | — |
| 481d | Trader2936 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,027 | +$473 +16% | 4 |
| 482d | predickted | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo28¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 12 |
| 483d | marktangent3 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $4,755 | +$1,149 +24% | 5 |
| 483d | Spbrep | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,022 | +$202 +20% | 7 |
| 483d | Ja11 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo40¢ → 0¢ | $1,978 | −$1,978 −100% | 10 |
| 483d | eric007-574 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,308 | −$692 −30% | — |
| 484d |  nnimrodd3 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $4,703 | +$1,108 +24% | 5 |
| 484d | KennyM | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,759 | −$531 −30% | — |
| 485d | Yoss1989 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,140 | −$651 −30% | — |
| 485d | Plainforce2 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $4,065 | +$1,156 +28% | 5 |
| 486d | jaja5050 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,962 | +$1,395 +47% | 6 |
| 486d | Mama-Omida | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo23¢ → 0¢ | $1,322 | +$1,322 +100% | — |
| 486d |  KimJonEn | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | +$388 +36% | 6 |
| 487d |  png10242 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $6,784 | +$2,495 +37% | 6 |
| 487d | Saltyballs | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,646 | −$704 −43% | — |
| 487d | Ederen2 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $2,362 | −$2,362 −100% | 7 |
| 487d |  just.some.guy | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,737 | +$1,066 +39% | 6 |
| 487d | scholarchris2 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $2,464 | −$1,549 −63% | — |
| 487d | Lnn | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo48¢ → 0¢ | $1,498 | +$1,498 +100% | — |
| 487d |  AlmostAndy | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $2,646 | −$2,646 −100% | 6 |
| 487d |  Temmyr | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,868 | +$1,868 +100% | — |
| 487d |  BettingKlaus | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo50¢ → 0¢ | $2,479 | +$2,479 +100% | — |
| 487d |  LongOnWars2 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo34¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 9 |
| 487d | Sorrymissjackson | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | +$223 +22% | 5 |
| 487d |  Blunderton | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | +$623 +59% | 6 |
| 487d |  cy6erpunker | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo38¢ → 0¢ | $2,034 | +$2,034 +100% | — |
| 487d | cy6erpunker | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo57¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 6 |
| 487d | Saltyballs | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,954 | +$395 +20% | 5 |
| 487d |  SappySeal672 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $3,406 | −$1,369 −40% | — |
| 487d | SkippyMo | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | +$327 +28% | 5 |
| 487d | song87 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo32¢ → 0¢ | $1,053 | −$1,053 −100% | 6 |
| 487d | nothinggood | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo16¢ → 0¢ | $2,145 | +$2,145 +100% | — |
| 487d |  Car | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,797 | +$886 +49% | 6 |
| 487d |  mombil | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$465 +45% | 6 |
| 487d | jabububu | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo32¢ → 0¢ | $1,121 | +$1,121 +100% | — |
| 487d | lc00000 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,749 | +$581 +33% | 6 |
| 487d | nothinggood | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $5,590 | −$5,590 −100% | 8 |
| 488d |  siick | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellYes30¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | −$3,251 −233% | — |
| 488d | SusBack | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $2,269 | −$2,269 −100% | 6 |
| 488d | Qtyu | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo67¢ → 0¢ | $1,340 | +$1,340 +100% | — |
| 488d |  eCash2 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $7,629 | −$7,629 −100% | 4 |
| 488d |  aabbcc152342 fills | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo66¢ → 0¢ | $2,867 | +$2,867 +100% | — |
| 488d | scholarchris | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyYes20¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$4,000 +400% | 6 |
| 488d | siick | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,691 | +$1,691 +100% | — |
| 488d | jjumon2 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $8,000 | −$8,000 −100% | 5 |
| 488d |  DoctorManhattan | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo86¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 5 |
| 488d | jabububu | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $2,193 | −$2,193 −100% | 5 |
| 489d | Bob12331 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 4 |
| 489d |  BenjarninNetanyahu | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | BuyNo86¢ → 0¢ | $1,027 | −$1,027 −100% | 4 |
| 489d | John475 | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | SellNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,366 | +$1,366 +100% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran and Israel that begins at any time between June 15, and June 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between June 15 and June 30, 2025 ET (inclusive), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran or Israel against the other’s soil, airspace, maritime territory, or official Israeli embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.