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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5% | 0 pts | — | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| December 31, 2027 | 26% | — | — | 22¢ · 29¢ (7¢) | — | in 434d |
| June 30, 2027 | 7% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 5¢ · 9¢ (4¢) | — | in 250d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60d | h038596027355 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $1,125 | −$42 −3.8% | — |
| 84d | h038596027355 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo95¢ | $1,425 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
Brokie1,567 shares
Haradwaith180 shares
Lavincey12 shares
bosshog736 shares
Talophex460 shares
Belgaron200 shares
johnnyA93 shares
GrokEnjoyer45 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 5%.