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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $41.7 | in 73d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | Vietnam73 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $38,013 | −$8 −0.0% | 7 |
| 27d | gorovi9 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $26,900 | +$1,332 +5.0% | 10 |
| 40d |  allenzzz | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $3,020 | −$43 −1.4% | — |
| 40d |  forever123 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $1,992 | +$10 +0.5% | 7 |
| 40d | allenzzz2 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $3,977 | +$59 +1.5% | 8 |
| 49d |  Trashbag | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $8,460 | +$122 +1.4% | 8 |
| 70d | Sunbe | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,027 | −$28 −1.4% | — |
| 91d |  J3lcExePrd1KE5M4 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $6,995 | +$535 +7.7% | 12 |
| 94d | NeH4 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $22,570 | +$2,279 +10% | 13 |
| 97d | NeH | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $2,197 | −$56 −2.5% | — |
| 140d |  Aq4ExePrd22Jn | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $3,000 | +$169 +5.6% | 10 |
| 157d | Utoya | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $1,720 | +$187 +11% | 13 |
| 322d |  wllstrt | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $1,392 | +$134 +9.6% | 13 |
| 331d |  SwampDust | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SellNo78¢ → 95¢ | $1,280 | −$283 −22% | — |
| 343d | SwampDust | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 95¢ | $1,393 | +$170 +12% | 14 |
LlamaLoco000028,410 shares
meagainsttheworld4,000 sharesTrashbag12,729 sharesJ3lcExePrd1KE5M11,966 sharesAq4ExePrd22Jn8,275 sharesforever1232,100 sharesIf any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 5%.