Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | +2 pts | +5 pts | 9¢ · 19¢ (10¢) | $146 | in 128d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49d | ourdemocracy2 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BuyNo80¢ → 86¢ | $1,526 | +$115 +7.5% | 17 |
| 76d | 0x79a1…34b5 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BuyYes67¢ → 14¢ | $1,225 | −$968 −79% | 24 |
| 204d | Political-Baobab | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BuyNo71¢ → 86¢ | $1,215 | +$257 +21% | 23 |
| 241d | oryn69 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | SellYes30¢ → 14¢ | $1,054 | +$568 +54% | — |
| 241d | boring999 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | SellNo65¢ → 86¢ | $1,261 | −$406 −32% | — |
Zarshka928 shares
usurper552,269 shares
babyshark.700 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 14¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 14%.