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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | +72 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +13 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 1 | 100% | +53 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 17 | 100% | +27 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 2 | 100% | +51 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 3 | 100% | +50 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 10 | 100% | +24 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 29 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 26 | 0% | −46 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115d | Trustinghorse3 fills | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,327 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d |  dotethguy | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C293 fills | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,288 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d |  Ahpo | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,725 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | SleeperHunter | July 3 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,260 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d | melonmanm2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,260 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 115d | SleeperHunter | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,491 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 115d |  Relaccsed | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 115d |  The-Joker3 fills | July 17 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,029 | +$385 +7.7% | 20 |
| 115d |  tourists | July 3 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,141 | +$26 +2.2% | 20 |
| 115d | dry-september | June 30 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,965 | +$685 +17% | 24 |
| 116d |  peterfromfamilyguy | June 30 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,522 | +$522 +34% | 27 |
| 116d | tourists | June 30 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,472 | +$543 +22% | 25 |
| 116d | NagashBeatz | June 30 | SellNo42¢ → 0¢ | $1,068 | +$1,068 +100% | — |
| 116d |  Dragontree | June 30 | BuyNo59¢ → 0¢ | $1,836 | −$1,836 −100% | 28 |
| 116d | Linslav | June 30 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,381 | −$275 −20% | — |
| 116d |  libratus1 | June 30 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$164 +16% | 24 |
| 116d | Bankrupt-Loser | July 10 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | +$23 +1.9% | 20 |
| 116d | Bankrupt-Loser | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,748 | +$19 +1.1% | 20 |
| 116d | Bankrupt-Loser | July 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,638 | +$76 +2.1% | 20 |
| 116d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,795 | +$176 +4.6% | 20 |
| 116d |  kl1v2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,352 | +$259 +5.9% | 20 |
| 116d | joloseaturtle2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo46¢ → 0¢ | $2,713 | −$2,713 −100% | 29 |
| 116d | kl1v | July 17 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$92 +7.7% | 20 |
| 116d | MautiousCat | June 30 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$140 +13% | 23 |
| 116d |  PredictionYogi | June 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,064 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 117d | Calculating-Relative | June 30 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $2,917 | +$2,961 +102% | 28 |
| 118d | Bankrupt-Loser | June 30 | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $1,252 | −$1,252 −100% | 23 |
| 118d |  rewardbots | July 31 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,731 | +$595 +34% | 20 |
| 119d | manchot | June 30 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | +$589 +45% | 22 |
| 119d | Legal-Minimum-Providence | June 30 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$1,208 +60% | 22 |
| 119d | rewardbots | June 30 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$678 +67% | 22 |
| 120d | Vague-Membrane | June 30 | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,964 | −$1,964 −100% | 22 |
| 120d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | July 31 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$216 +22% | 20 |
merge7775,250 shares
Mikelious2,818 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for June 30 means the market gives it about 100%.