| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 6,204 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $6,133 | +$109 +1.8% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 3,868 | 89¢ → 96¢ | $3,694 | +$252 +7.3% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 3,335 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $3,181 | +$179 +6.0% |
| Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 2,833 | 42¢ → 97¢ | $2,746 | +$1,553 +130% |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 2,604 | 88¢ → 93¢ | $2,422 | +$138 +6.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 5d | Yes | 1,750 | 79¢ → 84¢ | $1,461 | +$85 +6.2% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for SpaceXAI / Elon Musk by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 1,120 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $1,086 | +$34 +3.3% |
| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 1,092 | 88¢ → 91¢ | $989 | +$24 +2.4% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 46d | No | 983 | 87¢ → 99¢ | $976 | +$118 +14% |
| US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,115 | 80¢ → 86¢ | $954 | +$61 +6.9% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 1,000 | 95¢ → 95¢ | $951 | −$2 −0.2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends ended | Yes | 942 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $926 | +$3 +0.3% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 790 | 97¢ → >99¢ | $787 | +$24 +3.2% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 800 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $784 | +$32 +4.3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 1d | Yes | 672 | 87¢ → 94¢ | $628 | +$42 +7.2% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | Yes | 620 | 97¢ → 98¢ | $609 | +$10 +1.6% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 600 | 96¢ → 98¢ | $587 | +$8 +1.4% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 600 | 90¢ → 96¢ | $577 | +$39 +7.2% |
| Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 700 | 74¢ → 80¢ | $557 | +$40 +7.7% |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 576 | 82¢ → 97¢ | $556 | +$84 +18% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 1,000 | 53¢ → 53¢ | $525 | −$5 −0.9% |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,964 | 13¢ → 26¢ | $511 | +$255 +100% |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 591 | 84¢ → 84¢ | $493 | −$2 −0.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | No | 1,000 | 49¢ → 48¢ | $475 | −$15 −3.1% |
| Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 629 | 76¢ → 74¢ | $468 | −$12 −2.6% |
| Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 500 | 93¢ → 93¢ | $464 | −$1 −0.2% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 500 | 93¢ → 93¢ | $463 | −$2 −0.3% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 2,779 | 24¢ → 15¢ | $417 | −$238 −36% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 446 | 87¢ → 93¢ | $415 | +$28 +7.2% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 451 | 76¢ → 92¢ | $413 | +$70 +20% |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 437 | 77¢ → 88¢ | $382 | +$46 +14% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | No | 876 | 42¢ → 41¢ | $355 | −$17 −4.5% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 46d | Yes | 1,542 | 26¢ → 23¢ | $355 | −$39 −9.9% |
| Will the UK Budget include a land value tax?Ends in 5d | No | 370 | 90¢ → 96¢ | $354 | +$23 +7.0% |
| Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 403 | 38¢ → 79¢ | $319 | +$164 +106% |
| Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 7, 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 398 | 54¢ → 78¢ | $311 | +$96 +45% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 297 | 85¢ → 97¢ | $287 | +$34 +14% |
| Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 329 | 70¢ → 84¢ | $275 | +$46 +20% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 309 | 89¢ → 89¢ | $275 | −$1 −0.3% |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 344 | 72¢ → 74¢ | $254 | +$7 +2.8% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 290 | 84¢ → 85¢ | $246 | +$3 +1.2% |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 245 | 77¢ → 99¢ | $242 | +$52 +28% |
| Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026?Ends in 53d | Yes | 325 | 65¢ → 73¢ | $236 | +$23 +11% |
| Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?Ends in 23d | No | 262 | 61¢ → 90¢ | $235 | +$75 +47% |
| Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?Ends in 434d | No | 220 | 65¢ → 97¢ | $214 | +$71 +50% |
| Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 320 | 77¢ → 65¢ | $207 | −$41 −16% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | No | 250 | 80¢ → 82¢ | $206 | +$7 +3.6% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 253 | 84¢ → 81¢ | $204 | −$8 −3.7% |
| Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 254 | 88¢ → 79¢ | $199 | −$24 −11% |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 200 | 90¢ → 99¢ | $198 | +$18 +9.8% |
| Will Houthis target Pakistan by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 200 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $196 | +$5 +2.4% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 200 | 95¢ → 97¢ | $193 | +$3 +1.8% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 7d | No | 200 | 76¢ → 95¢ | $189 | +$38 +25% |
| Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 209 | 84¢ → 90¢ | $187 | +$11 +6.2% |
| OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 300 | 60¢ → 62¢ | $186 | +$6 +3.5% |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 230 | 74¢ → 77¢ | $177 | +$7 +3.9% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 182 | 80¢ → 94¢ | $171 | +$26 +17% |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Ends in 4d | Yes | 200 | 68¢ → 82¢ | $163 | +$28 +20% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 160 | 88¢ → 96¢ | $154 | +$13 +9.3% |
| Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 170 | 86¢ → 91¢ | $154 | +$8 +5.2% |
| Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?Ends in 38d | No | 175 | 84¢ → 88¢ | $153 | +$6 +4.0% |
| Astra removed from public access by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 153 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $150 | +$6 +4.5% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 155 | 89¢ → 96¢ | $149 | +$12 +8.8% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 250 | 72¢ → 60¢ | $149 | −$31 −17% |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 229 | 64¢ → 64¢ | $146 | −$1 −0.8% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 150 | 91¢ → 92¢ | $137 | +$1 +0.5% |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 356 | 22¢ → 38¢ | $134 | +$56 +73% |
| Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 347 | 21¢ → 34¢ | $116 | +$42 +57% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 96d | Yes | 8,159 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $110 | −$19 −15% |
| Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?Ends in 166d | No | 118 | 84¢ → 87¢ | $102 | +$4 +4.1% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 122 | 66¢ → 81¢ | $99 | +$18 +22% |
| Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 100 | 84¢ → 97¢ | $97 | +$13 +16% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Iran by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 100 | 96¢ → 97¢ | $97 | +$1 +1.0% |
| Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 143 | 34¢ → 68¢ | $97 | +$49 +101% |
| Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 100 | 91¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$5 +5.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 100 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$3 +2.7% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 100 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $95 | +$5 +5.6% |
| Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?Ends in 159d | Yes | 395 | 21¢ → 24¢ | $93 | +$10 +12% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | No | 100 | 82¢ → 93¢ | $93 | +$11 +13% |
| Will Iran target Qatar by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 100 | 92¢ → 89¢ | $89 | −$2 −2.5% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 90 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $87 | +$6 +7.7% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 250 | 28¢ → 33¢ | $81 | +$11 +16% |
| Jonathan Powell out as UK National Security Adviser by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 92 | 81¢ → 73¢ | $66 | −$8 −10% |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 92 | 66¢ → 68¢ | $63 | +$2 +3.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 800 | 9¢ → 8¢ | $60 | −$11 −15% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 1d | No | 60 | 69¢ → 99¢ | $59 | +$18 +43% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 200 | 25¢ → 27¢ | $54 | +$4 +8.0% |
| Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?Ends in 47d | No | 85 | 70¢ → 60¢ | $51 | −$8 −14% |
| Will Houthis target Syria by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 50 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $48 | +$2 +4.8% |
| Will Houthis target Syria by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 50 | 78¢ → 95¢ | $47 | +$8 +21% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8?Ends ended | Yes | 50 | 42¢ → 94¢ | $47 | +$26 +125% |
| Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 200 | 30¢ → 21¢ | $42 | −$18 −30% |
| Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?Ends in 159d | Yes | 68 | 55¢ → 62¢ | $42 | +$4 +12% |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 561 | 12¢ → 7¢ | $36 | −$29 −45% |
| Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?Ends in 8d | No | 40 | 94¢ → 91¢ | $36 | −$1 −3.2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Ends in 128d | Yes | 114 | 29¢ → 32¢ | $36 | +$4 +11% |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | Yes | 37 | 83¢ → 98¢ | $36 | +$5 +18% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 31 | 90¢ → 96¢ | $30 | +$2 +6.8% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 18?Ends ended | Yes | 50 | 80¢ → 60¢ | $30 | −$10 −25% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 46d | Yes | 1,000 | 2¢ → 3¢ | $30 | +$11 +63% |
