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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 28 | 100% | +57 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| On or prior to September 24 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 25 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 26 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 27 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 29 | 0% | −46 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 1 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 2 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 3 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 4 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 5 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 6 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 7 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 8 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 9 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 10 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 11 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 12 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 13 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 14 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 15 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No release by October 15 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25d |  urhfrhchj123123 | September 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,147 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 25d | urhfrhchj123123 | October 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,015 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 25d | donthackme | October 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,008 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 25d | donthackme | September 29 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$32 +3.1% | 21 |
| 25d |  Waterfall | September 28 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,785 | +$244 +3.6% | 21 |
| 25d | donthackme | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,046 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 25d | user089 | September 28 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,505 | −$272 −18% | — |
| 25d | Faelara1337 | September 28 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,448 | +$163 +11% | 23 |
| 25d | user089 | September 28 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,409 | +$471 +33% | 27 |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public. Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 28 means the market gives it about 100%.