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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 19 | 100% | +97 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 13 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 14 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 15 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 16 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 17 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 18 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 20 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 21 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 22 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 23 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 24 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 25 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 26 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 27 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 28 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 29 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 30 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No US strike on Syria in 2025 | 0% | −89 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 308d | thecaricature | December 19 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,298 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 308d | denizz | December 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,958 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d |  isunou3 fills | December 19 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,203 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | BMP03 | December 19 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,167 | −$65 −3.0% | — |
| 308d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | December 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,714 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | rated | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 308d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,814 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,747 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | December 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 308d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | December 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,248 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 308d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | December 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,450 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | No US strike on Syria in 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,054 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d |  .jeet | December 19 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,590 | +$47 +1.3% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | cigarettes | December 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | 0x4e25…d7a72 fills | No US strike on Syria in 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,038 | +$26 +0.6% | 20 |
| 308d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | December 19 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,767 | +$248 +9.0% | 20 |
| 309d | onekey09 | December 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,593 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 310d |  bamesjond | December 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,656 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 310d | onekey09 | December 17 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,894 | +$29 +1.0% | 20 |
| 311d |  Chims | December 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | xjahsfhs | December 17 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$22 +1.6% | 20 |
| 311d | wyjsgbhsgfh | December 17 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | +$22 +1.6% | 20 |
| 311d | mbndxhwsth | December 17 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,322 | +$21 +1.6% | 20 |
| 311d | ztghyajhast | December 17 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,348 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 311d | xgjsthszf | December 17 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 311d | xsnrthga | December 17 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | −$27 −2.0% | — |
| 311d | qhyjhnafdg | December 17 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,345 | +$27 +2.0% | 20 |
| 311d | msgbtaqth | December 17 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,284 | +$26 +2.0% | 20 |
| 311d | xsnrthga | December 17 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | +$27 +2.0% | 20 |
| 311d | Sour-Astrakhan | December 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,140 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 312d |  0x46E29dcb9cD03B9f39bf5Bf7759b07ea280EF | December 25 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | +$74 +6.6% | 20 |
| 312d | Chims | December 25 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,407 | +$93 +6.6% | 20 |
| 312d | yinyi123 | No US strike on Syria in 2025 | BuyYes83¢ → 0¢ | $1,541 | −$1,541 −100% | 20 |
| 312d | tokayo | December 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,557 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 313d |  ComingBack2 fills | December 15 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$70 +2.8% | 20 |
| 313d |  PredictionYogi | December 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,755 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 313d | bamesjond2 fills | December 14 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,791 | +$56 +2.0% | 20 |
| 313d | Chims | December 14 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,965 | +$54 +2.8% | 20 |
| 314d | esac | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,131 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 314d | Michael5289 | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 314d |  JaidenAnimations | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,893 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 314d | bamesjond | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,549 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any official Syrian embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 19 means the market gives it about 100%.