Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 9% | — | +1 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| March 31, 2027 | 16% | −2 pts | +6 pts | 12¢ · 20¢ (8¢) | $13.2 | in 159d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | pagliacci4 | March 31, 2027 | BuyNo77¢ → 84¢ | $1,720 | +$158 +9.2% | 35 |
| 42d | nelbal8486 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $1,994 | +$172 +8.6% | 20 |
| 45d | conotocaurius2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo81¢ → 92¢ | $6,850 | −$861 −13% | — |
| 50d | sdiff123 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo81¢ → 92¢ | $3,588 | −$465 −13% | — |
| 50d |  ydxistheking | December 31, 2026 | SellNo81¢ → 92¢ | $1,226 | −$155 −13% | — |
| 97d | alwaysOn | December 31, 2026 | SellNo79¢ → 92¢ | $1,656 | −$262 −16% | — |
| 104d | conotocaurius | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo79¢ → 92¢ | $2,500 | +$396 +16% | 20 |
| 108d | pastbe | December 31, 2026 | SellNo81¢ → 92¢ | $1,439 | −$187 −13% | — |
| 108d | farage123 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo81¢ → 92¢ | $2,583 | −$348 −13% | — |
| 109d |  Jellow2 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo73¢ → 92¢ | $3,761 | −$940 −25% | — |
| 109d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo78¢ → 92¢ | $2,947 | −$518 −18% | — |
| 109d |  Trading4Fridge | December 31, 2026 | SellYes22¢ → 9¢ | $1,765 | +$1,077 +61% | — |
| 109d | Scalpoor | December 31, 2026 | SellNo74¢ → 92¢ | $3,275 | −$767 −23% | — |
| 109d | alwaysOn | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo88¢ → 92¢ | $6,726 | +$268 +4.0% | 20 |
| 109d | Jellow2 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo63¢ → 92¢ | $1,146 | +$523 +46% | 20 |
| 109d | jesterthegoose | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo66¢ → 92¢ | $4,001 | +$1,551 +39% | 20 |
| 109d |  fireponbabylon | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo40¢ → 92¢ | $1,835 | +$2,330 +127% | 21 |
| 109d | Trading4Fridge2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes74¢ → 9¢ | $14,018 | −$12,407 −89% | 20 |
| 109d |  Ahpo | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes91¢ → 9¢ | $3,514 | −$3,185 −91% | 20 |
| 109d | Shepe | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes90¢ → 9¢ | $1,200 | −$1,087 −91% | 20 |
| 109d | Trading4Fridge | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo65¢ → 92¢ | $1,200 | +$500 +42% | 20 |
| 109d | Scalpoor | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo47¢ → 92¢ | $1,288 | +$1,220 +95% | 20 |
| 109d | KiernanMeister | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes66¢ → 9¢ | $1,536 | −$1,339 −87% | 20 |
Bingobingobingo5,304 shares
CommanderData2,502 shares
Bromley862,478 shares
QuarterlyComeback2,346 shares
47513462,331 sharesfireponbabylon1,365 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 9¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 9%.