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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navi Pillay | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Donald Trump | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Pope Leo XIV | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 0% | −5 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Julian Assange | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Greta Thunberg | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Elon Musk | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| UNRWA | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| International Court of Justice | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| António Guterres | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Vladimir Putin | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Khaled Mashal | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Xi Jinping | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Charlie Kirk | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Narendra Modi | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 0% | −16 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chow Hang-tung | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Reporters Without Borders | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| UNHCR | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ICRC | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 0% | −3 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| World Central Kitchen | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Save the Children | 0% | −8 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mark Carney | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mykola Kuleba | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| International Criminal Court | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Doctors Without Borders | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| International Space Station | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Parents Circle – Families Forum | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| International Association of Judges | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| International Peace Research Association | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yad Vashem | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jimmy Lai | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ilham Tohti | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Person W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AA | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AB | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AC | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AD | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AE | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AF | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AG | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AH | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AI | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AJ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AK | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AL | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AM | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AN | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AO | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AP | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AQ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AR | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AS | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AT | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AU | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AV | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AW | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person AX | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d |  Lolakis | Yulia Navalnaya | SellNo>99¢ | $2,165 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 15d |  scout | Navi Pillay | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,785 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d |  CoinTrick2 fills | Sara Al-Saqqa | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,347 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | aviato2 fills | Committee to Protect Journalists | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,526 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d |  themagicofcinema | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,239 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | Kippekok | Yulia Navalnaya | SellNo>99¢ | $1,137 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | themagicofcinema | International Criminal Court | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,291 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | forinnerpsandr1x11222 | International Criminal Court | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | peepeepooppoop | Committee to Protect Journalists | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,855 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d |  AgricultureSecretary | UNRWA | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | peepeepooppoop | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,524 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | aviato | International Criminal Court | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,845 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | forinnerpsandr1x112224 fills | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,604 | +$79 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d |  hack-vc2 fills | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,234 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 15d |  yen4u | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,528 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 15d | pagliacci4 | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,179 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 15d | 8tSnjSWgyo26Gxt | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,295 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 15d | ColdMath | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,183 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 15d | Welostbetting | Yulia Navalnaya | SellNo>99¢ | $1,078 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | FlyingPlaty | International Criminal Court | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,125 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d |  noreasapa | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,955 | +$45 +0.5% | 20 |
| 15d |  lamyk2 fills | International Court of Justice | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,786 | +$70 +2.5% | 20 |
| 15d | Arman2 | Yulia Navalnaya | SellNo>99¢ | $2,670 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Mykola Kuleba | SellNo>99¢ | $2,085 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | CoinTrick | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,129 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d |  paddaa | UNRWA | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | Dreamwire | International Court of Justice | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,247 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 15d |  aenews2 | International Court of Justice | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,837 | +$33 +1.2% | 20 |
| 15d | Lolakis3 fills | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $6,632 | +$2,828 +43% | 20 |
| 15d | aviato | Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,812 | +$130 +0.7% | 20 |
| 15d | lamyk | Mykola Kuleba | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 15d | Dreamwire | Mykola Kuleba | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,299 | +$201 +15% | 24 |
| 15d | noreasapa | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $48,812 | +$49 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | paddaa4 fills | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $14,387 | +$5,219 +36% | 20 |
| 15d | Dreamwire | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$500 +33% | 20 |
| 15d |  seal7 | Mykola Kuleba | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,493 | +$527 +35% | 27 |
| 15d | 572849102 fills | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $16,023 | −$33 −0.2% | — |
| 15d |  Cypya | Mykola Kuleba | BuyYes27¢ → 0¢ | $1,339 | −$1,339 −100% | 29 |
| 15d | aviato | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | Fearless-Rear-Chitchat | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,772 | +$485 +27% | 20 |
| 15d | mpstire-lutuwar3 fills | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $18,759 | −$44 −0.2% | — |
| 15d |  ImOldBruceWayne | Mykola Kuleba | BuyYes24¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 28 |
| 15d | seal7 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $5,248 | +$1,666 +32% | 26 |
| 15d | yen4u2 fills | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $3,216 | +$934 +29% | 20 |
| 15d | 0xa909…9c0c | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyYes27¢ → 0¢ | $1,437 | −$1,437 −100% | 22 |
| 15d | halulula | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | −$551 −37% | — |
| 15d | aenews2 | Mykola Kuleba | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,829 | +$1,073 +38% | 27 |
| 15d | yen4u | Mykola Kuleba | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$538 +43% | 28 |
| 15d | ImOldBruceWayne3 fills | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $3,159 | −$3,159 −100% | 24 |
| 15d | leonidvolkov | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $5,867 | +$1,126 +19% | 20 |
| 15d | ImOldBruceWayne | Yulia Navalnaya | SellYes22¢ → 0¢ | $1,302 | +$1,302 +100% | — |
| 15d | scout4 fills | Donald Trump | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $123,280 | +$845 +0.7% | 20 |
| 15d |  peterfromfamilyguy | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$465 +31% | 20 |
| 15d | halulula | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,681 | +$195 +12% | 23 |
| 15d |  Bertapotamous2 fills | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $9,867 | +$3,347 +34% | 20 |
| 15d |  Rex416 | Yulia Navalnaya | SellYes31¢ → 0¢ | $1,724 | +$1,724 +100% | — |
| 15d | yen4u2 fills | Yulia Navalnaya | SellYes26¢ → 0¢ | $2,462 | +$2,462 +100% | — |
| 15d | Rex416 | World Central Kitchen | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,449 | +$21 +1.4% | 20 |
| 15d | Bertapotamous | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,739 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d |  wienerdog2 fills | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $16,133 | +$1,666 +10% | 20 |
ImJustBen50 sharesThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Navi Pillay means the market gives it about 100%.