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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Seyfried | 0% | −12 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Cynthia Erivo | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Emma Stone | 100% | +10 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Rose Byrne | 100% | +2 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Renate Reinsve | 100% | +6 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Jessie Buckley | 100% | 0 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Jennifer Lawrence | 0% | −8 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sydney Sweeney | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Eva Victor | 0% | −6 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June Squibb | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jodie Comer | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jessica Lange | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Julia Roberts | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kate Hudson | 100% | +69 pts | +67 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Lucy Liu | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Saoirse Ronan | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 274d |  wish- | Cynthia Erivo | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,179 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | wish- | Sydney Sweeney | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,095 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 274d | wish- | Julia Roberts | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,041 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | wish- | Jodie Comer | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,737 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d |  TheAugur | Rose Byrne | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,982 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | wish- | Emma Stone | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,366 | +$57 +1.7% | 20 |
| 274d | 11122 | Renate Reinsve | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,730 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 276d | sylv13 | Rose Byrne | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,454 | +$45 +1.8% | 20 |
| 277d | Naomi1234 | Jessie Buckley | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 277d | Grain3434 | Jessie Buckley | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,001 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 277d | Lexma2 fills | Jessica Lange | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,664 | +$18 +0.7% | 20 |
| 279d | RIU82 fills | Jessie Buckley | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,662 | +$38 +1.4% | 20 |
| 282d | eNakeVets | Emma Stone | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$119 +11% | 20 |
| 294d | nonkenny90 | Renate Reinsve | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | +$56 +5.3% | 20 |
| 322d |  ImJustKen | Cynthia Erivo | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $1,863 | +$1,863 +100% | 20 |
| 390d |  macrosteaks | June Squibb | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,550 | +$450 +9.9% | 20 |
| 390d | macrosteaks | Eva Victor | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,957 | +$253 +6.4% | 20 |
| 391d | ImJustKen | Emma Stone | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,513 | +$1,042 +69% | 20 |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Amanda Seyfried means the market gives it about 0%.