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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Thomas Anderson | 100% | — | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Joachim Trier | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chloé Zhao | 0% | +1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ryan Coogler | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Benny Safdie | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jafar Panahi | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yorgos Lanthimos | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Josh Safdie | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kathryn Bigelow | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Park Chan-wook | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Guillermo del Toro | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kleber Mendonça Filho | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jon M. Chu | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hikari | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Derek Cianfrance | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 221d | Clawbangers | Paul Thomas Anderson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,471 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | Paul Thomas Anderson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | therealgreenastro | Ryan Coogler | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | First-Comestible | Paul Thomas Anderson | SellYes>99¢ | $3,195 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | HappyFamily | Paul Thomas Anderson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,902 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | BrightSpringFox | Ryan Coogler | SellNo>99¢ | $2,551 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | NeoWick | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,945 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | meropi | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,017 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 221d | meropi | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,515 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 221d | First-Comestible | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,075 | +$123 +4.0% | 20 |
| 221d | HappyFamily | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,834 | +$70 +3.8% | 20 |
| 221d | mwenya2 fills | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,981 | +$265 +8.9% | 20 |
| 221d | QUADROZE | Paul Thomas Anderson | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | −$53 −5.2% | — |
| 221d | Clawbangers | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | +$74 +5.3% | 20 |
| 221d | mwenya | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,885 | +$115 +6.1% | 20 |
| 221d | Orbit2126 | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$120 +6.4% | 20 |
| 221d | MettaWorldPeace00 | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,619 | +$167 +6.4% | 20 |
| 221d |  Kiko596 | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,567 | +$100 +6.4% | 20 |
| 221d | influenz.eth5 fills | Josh Safdie | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,180 | +$21 +0.3% | 20 |
| 221d | influenz.eth5 fills | Chloé Zhao | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,677 | +$23 +0.3% | 20 |
| 221d | influenz.eth5 fills | Joachim Trier | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,193 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | blacksweep | Ryan Coogler | BuyYes8¢ → 0¢ | $1,464 | −$1,464 −100% | 23 |
| 221d | BruceWayne77 | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyNo8¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 221d | Megabyte911 | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $7,106 | +$574 +8.1% | 20 |
| 221d | influenz.eth3 fills | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,884 | +$319 +8.2% | 20 |
| 222d | pang1220 | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,542 | +$267 +7.5% | 20 |
| 222d | rated | Chloé Zhao | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,048 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | rated | Joachim Trier | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | rated | Josh Safdie | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | immanuelcan | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,388 | +$208 +8.7% | 23 |
| 223d | Melody626 | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | +$90 +8.7% | 22 |
| 223d |  qamaici2 fills | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,825 | +$211 +7.5% | 22 |
| 223d | AiBird | Ryan Coogler | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | −$81 −8.0% | — |
| 223d |  Boss72 fills | Josh Safdie | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,493 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 223d | yupiiiiiiiii | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,734 | +$131 +7.5% | 22 |
| 223d | Donden2 fills | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,459 | +$175 +7.1% | 20 |
| 223d | ManCangGangGanDaDanGan | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,864 | +$216 +7.5% | 21 |
| 226d | SplendidAmadeus4 fills | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $9,109 | +$645 +7.1% | 20 |
| 226d |  CharlesUp | Paul Thomas Anderson | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,423 | −$107 −7.5% | — |
| 226d |  abracadabr | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $8,471 | +$737 +8.7% | 21 |
| 227d |  Dapsy | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$348 +8.7% | 21 |
| 227d |  macrosteaks | Josh Safdie | SellNo>99¢ | $2,177 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 227d | SaversCrypto | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$113 +8.7% | 21 |
| 228d | artemsv | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,249 | +$106 +8.5% | 21 |
| 229d | soap.tenant.expire | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | −$112 −8.7% | — |
| 229d | Aim-Relief | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | +$112 +8.6% | 20 |
| 229d | twenty-render | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | +$91 +8.6% | 20 |
| 229d | soap.tenant.expire | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,286 | +$110 +8.6% | 20 |
| 230d | debate-settle-property | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | −$96 −8.2% | — |
| 230d | Aim-Relief | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | −$86 −8.2% | — |
| 230d | debate-settle-property | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$98 +8.5% | 20 |
| 230d | wetGoat | Ryan Coogler | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | +$87 +8.5% | 20 |
| 230d | arrangeEnergy | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | −$100 −8.3% | — |
| 230d | grant2869 | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | −$90 −8.3% | — |
| 230d | detailRely | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | −$119 −8.3% | — |
| 230d | Ahead.Laptop.Rebel | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,711 | −$143 −8.3% | — |
| 230d | bubbleVarious | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | −$133 −8.3% | — |
| 230d | Frontexpand | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,268 | −$106 −8.3% | — |
| 230d | leaf704 | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | −$86 −8.3% | — |
| 230d | hub-until | Ryan Coogler | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,594 | −$133 −8.3% | — |
Avarice3128,600 sharesThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Paul Thomas Anderson means the market gives it about 100%.