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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariana Grande | 0% | −47 pts | −53 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chase Infiniti | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elle Fanning | 100% | +69 pts | +75 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Wunmi Mosaku | 100% | +19 pts | +23 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Amy Madigan | 100% | +4 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | 100% | +11 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Teyana Taylor | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Laura Dern | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tilda Swinton | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gwyneth Paltrow | 0% | −9 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Regina Hall | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kate Hudson | 0% | +3 pts | +3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Emily Blunt | 0% | −3 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Glenn Close | 0% | −3 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mari Yamamoto | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Angelina LookingGlass | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Thomasin McKenzie | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Samantha Morton | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hailee Steinfeld | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ayo Edebiri | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Greta Lee | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Odessa A'zion | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 274d | anonymus8 | Hailee Steinfeld | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,641 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | anonymus8 | Mari Yamamoto | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,299 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | anonymus8 | Tilda Swinton | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,282 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | Each-Bench | Chase Infiniti | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,767 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | aviato3 fills | Chase Infiniti | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,305 | +$128 +0.7% | 20 |
| 274d | 11122 | Regina Hall | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,160 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | 11122 | Gwyneth Paltrow | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,575 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | aviato | Amy Madigan | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,946 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | 11122 | Elle Fanning | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $8,768 | +$1,695 +19% | 20 |
| 277d | vzxvhkuas6dg | Tilda Swinton | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,554 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 277d | cchhyddjnbn78879m | Tilda Swinton | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,581 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 277d | zxvzxvsauf745as | Tilda Swinton | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,581 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 277d | gdggaslfgsag456 | Tilda Swinton | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,554 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 278d | zxvnjasf453asfg | Laura Dern | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,503 | +$18 +0.7% | 20 |
| 278d | zjusalowr48dgaz1 | Laura Dern | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,622 | +$18 +0.7% | 20 |
| 278d | mjghauafs351hf | Laura Dern | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,625 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 278d | logadjzcxif67 | Laura Dern | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,506 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 279d | agmvh6fs1evf2 | Teyana Taylor | BuyYes100¢ | $2,530 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 279d | cukoh5xx8jrji | Teyana Taylor | BuyYes100¢ | $2,529 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 281d | 0xd0n20b421fd64c48d767323139f3c62155dfc662 | Chase Infiniti | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 286d |  beigesun | Chase Infiniti | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,948 | −$52 −2.7% | — |
| 286d |  0xdc3E831cad | Chase Infiniti | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,627 | −$40 −2.5% | — |
| 288d |  ittgnito | Chase Infiniti | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | +$24 +1.2% | 20 |
| 288d |  Rasalgethi | Chase Infiniti | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,387 | +$35 +2.5% | 20 |
| 289d |  humbleBaker | Chase Infiniti | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,998 | +$102 +2.0% | 20 |
| 293d | RIU8 | Amy Madigan | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,825 | +$225 +12% | 20 |
| 320d | mwenya2 fills | Chase Infiniti | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,667 | +$233 +6.3% | 20 |
| 336d |  ImJustKen | Angelina LookingGlass | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | +$50 +4.6% | 20 |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Ariana Grande means the market gives it about 0%.