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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | −2 pts | +12 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 100% | +3 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | +1 pts | +31 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 301d | Violent-Derby | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 301d |  tangzhe | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,456 | −$10 −0.7% | — |
| 301d | Talrs | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,642 | −$23 −0.6% | — |
| 301d | lilies | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,299 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 301d |  ScottyNooo | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,309 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 301d | Bageb2 fills | December 31 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,374 | −$382 −8.7% | — |
| 301d | ScottyNooo | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,064 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 301d |  UwO | January 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,993 | +$40 +1.0% | 20 |
| 301d | UwO | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,293 | +$33 +1.0% | 20 |
| 301d | JoshuaWallace | December 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,903 | −$55 −2.9% | — |
| 301d | esac | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,089 | +$34 +1.1% | 20 |
| 301d | weschen | December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,798 | +$47 +1.7% | 20 |
| 301d |  Ox1b1osgjjh173hdhdyy19h18hshbcndims12gsn | December 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$54 +4.2% | 20 |
| 301d | pikapika2 | January 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,964 | +$64 +2.2% | 20 |
| 301d | pikapika2 | March 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,547 | +$74 +2.9% | 20 |
| 301d | esac2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,627 | +$400 +15% | 20 |
| 301d | 0x4675…d7d0 | December 31 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,001 | −$273 −14% | — |
| 301d | 0xdamocles | December 31 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$175 +13% | 20 |
| 302d |  MEPP2 fills | December 31 | SellYes47¢ → 100¢ | $2,802 | −$3,156 −113% | — |
| 302d | johndoez | December 31 | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,020 | −$597 −30% | — |
| 302d | btacc | December 31 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,433 | +$537 +22% | 20 |
| 302d |  LinaBell | December 31 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $2,763 | −$650 −24% | — |
| 302d | suno3e | December 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$111 +11% | 20 |
| 302d |  mango-lassi | December 31 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | −$195 −15% | — |
| 302d |  Alexparker | December 31 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,141 | +$382 +18% | 20 |
| 302d |  Car | December 31 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,523 | −$481 −19% | — |
| 302d | P-J | December 31 | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,385 | −$415 −30% | — |
| 302d |  Porx | December 31 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | −$310 −25% | — |
| 302d |  Starsee2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,631 | +$221 +8.4% | 20 |
| 302d | suno3e | March 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | +$91 +8.7% | 20 |
| 302d | MEPP | December 31 | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $1,628 | +$1,666 +102% | 20 |
| 302d | pikapika22 fills | December 31 | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $4,007 | +$3,291 +82% | 20 |
| 302d | yaosh | January 31 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,541 | +$759 +30% | 20 |
| 302d | gnjich | January 31 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $2,736 | +$864 +32% | 20 |
| 302d | mihou | January 31 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,233 | +$667 +30% | 20 |
| 302d | duckky | January 31 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,464 | +$736 +30% | 20 |
| 302d |  KazLC | December 31 | BuyYes27¢ → 100¢ | $1,852 | +$5,008 +270% | 23 |
| 302d | 88blitzcrank | December 31 | SellYes37¢ → 100¢ | $1,629 | −$2,770 −170% | — |
| 302d | LL.ETH | December 31 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,910 | −$1,910 −100% | 20 |
| 303d | 0x9bdd…6da4 | December 31 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,509 | −$1,509 −100% | 20 |
| 303d | 0x5967…750d2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $3,400 | −$3,400 −100% | 20 |
| 303d |  Naichli | December 31 | SellYes36¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | −$2,200 −178% | — |
| 304d |  TheQuietRisk | December 31 | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $2,230 | +$2,770 +124% | 21 |
| 304d |  DaOnepiece | December 31 | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $2,040 | +$2,040 +100% | — |
| 304d | Qilin88 fills | December 31 | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $12,292 | −$12,292 −100% | 20 |
| 304d | KazLC | December 31 | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $2,798 | −$2,798 −100% | 20 |
| 305d | verty1122 fills | December 31 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $4,989 | +$5,076 +102% | 20 |
| 305d |  MisTKy3 | March 31 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,730 | −$270 −9.9% | — |
| 305d | KazLC | December 31 | SellYes30¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | −$3,151 −238% | — |
| 305d |  MagicEightBall | December 31 | SellYes31¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | −$2,977 −223% | — |
| 305d | yuzuolin | December 31 | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,036 | −$1,036 −100% | 20 |
| 305d | Real-Advertisement | December 31 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 20 |
| 306d | btacc | December 31 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $2,847 | −$2,847 −100% | 20 |
| 306d | Sharp-AgencyNew account | December 31 | SellNo51¢ → 0¢ | $2,936 | +$2,936 +100% | — |
| 306d | Xaci | March 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,619 | +$281 +7.8% | 20 |
| 306d | MisTKy3 | March 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,610 | +$390 +15% | 20 |
| 306d | MisTKy3 | December 31 | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,931 | −$1,931 −100% | 20 |
| 306d |  suraxy | December 31 | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 307d |  Bperil | January 31 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$399 +39% | 20 |
| 307d | Xaci | January 31 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $2,946 | −$1,203 −41% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Thailand and Cambodia between December 8, and December 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Thailand and Cambodia, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia has been reached will suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.