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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 100% | −3 pts | −4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | −6 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238d | alliswell | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,862 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | Skinny-Class | March 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 239d | HRE | March 31 | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $2,300 | −$2,300 −100% | 21 |
| 241d | March 31 | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | −$831 −61% | — | |
| 243d | June 30 | BuyNo29¢ → 0¢ | $1,189 | −$1,189 −100% | 21 | |
| 262d | March 31 | SellNo57¢ → 0¢ | $3,512 | +$3,512 +100% | — | |
| 262d | March 31 | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $1,322 | −$1,322 −100% | 20 | |
| 262d | Skinny-Class | March 31 | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $4,352 | +$3,648 +84% | 26 |
| 262d | cashy | March 31 | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$1,434 +141% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Iran between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Iranian land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; the Iranian Law Enforcement Command is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces; all sub-branches of the Artesh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (including the Basij), and Law Enforcement Command are part of the Iranian Armed forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 31 means the market gives it about 100%.