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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 13 | 100% | +54 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 9 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 10 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 11 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 12 | 0% | −56 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 14 | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 15 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 16 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 17 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 18 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 19 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 21+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 345d | Qilin8 | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,638 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  mapotofuman | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,047 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | donkdonkdonki | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,369 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | TexMexTRex | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,176 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | mexi2 fills | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,462 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | sadapple | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,305 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | Loser97 | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,110 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | Strange-Immortal2 fills | November 13 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,416 | −$216 −2.6% | — |
| 345d |  bamesjond | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,750 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | birdyknowsbest | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,211 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | Improbable-CitronNew account | November 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,517 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | Improbable-CitronNew account | November 17 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,534 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | Improbable-CitronNew account | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,657 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  bony0002 | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,182 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  m0rt | November 17 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  Epstein | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $72,616 | −$73 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  MisTKy3 | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $22,387 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | Dibs | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,599 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | Hahaha12 | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,030 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | Purple-Squash | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,537 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | terps444 | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  prescient | November 17 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,895 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | prescient | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,731 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | burnhill | November 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | xiaodeng | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,071 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | timearb | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,039 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  nnimrodd | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  Ffrcbjitefgjkoujj | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $18,474 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | HITM4N | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,720 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  Swizzbnb | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $24,397 | −$24 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  TheTruman | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,472 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | NoN | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $20,000 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | rwo | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $47,044 | +$47 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d |  aenews2 | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,896 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d | onekey09 | November 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d |  Ogonee | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,715 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,411 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d |  Birdof | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,297 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d | moisesgamebr | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,395 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 345d |  Oompa-Loompa | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,944 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d |  0xdc3E831cad | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,993 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d |  BigRabbit | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 345d | ToyodaMan | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 345d |  CertifiedCRY | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,804 | +$16 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d | wokerjoesleeper13 fills | November 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $37,305 | +$92 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d | cigarettes7 fills | November 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $31,352 | +$76 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d | costcostaff0118 fills | November 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $57,458 | +$120 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d |  huyase | November 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,999 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 345d | anciente3 fills | November 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,988 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d | MisTKy32 fills | November 13 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $25,986 | +$445 +1.7% | 4 |
| 345d | oVyg7f2 fills | November 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,621 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d |  BrightTiger3 fills | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,767 | +$19 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d | Improbable-CitronNew account | November 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,529 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d | m0rt | November 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,393 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d | wokerjoesleeper6 fills | November 14 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $12,129 | +$200 +1.7% | 4 |
| 345d |  LlamaEnjoyer | November 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $73,183 | +$147 +0.2% | 4 |
| 345d | Improbable-CitronNew account | November 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,517 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d | charkan | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,000 | +$20 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d | RealSK | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 345d |  Sry911FDF | November 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,088 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
dhwb2 shares
Cookedtan8,481 sharesThis market will resolve to the calendar date (ET) of the first day which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. A qualifying announcement date will determine this market's resolution, even if OPM lists a later reopening date (e.g., if OPM announces on November 10 that the government will reopen on November 11, the market will resolve to November 10). Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 13 means the market gives it about 100%.