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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $4,500 | 100% | +25 pts | +60 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,800 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,400 | 100% | +78 pts | +67 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,900 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,100 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,850 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,300 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,600 | 0% | −8 pts | −56 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,200 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,400 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,000 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,650 | 0% | −5 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,550 | 100% | +53 pts | +44 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,600 | 100% | +32 pts | +34 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,100 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,700 | 0% | −2 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,200 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,700 | 100% | +5 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,750 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,300 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,600 | 100% | +11 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 147d | C03B2 fills | ↑ $4,650 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,026 | +$85 +1.4% | 4 |
| 147d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↑ $4,600 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,969 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | C03B | ↓ $4,300 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,511 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | C03B2 fills | ↑ $4,800 | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $2,902 | +$1,406 +48% | 4 |
| 147d |  SOLinvestigator | ↑ $4,850 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,193 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | SOLinvestigator | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,397 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d |  SpicyBrwny | ↓ $4,100 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | SpicyBrwny | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | SpicyBrwny | ↑ $4,900 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,096 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | SpicyBrwny | ↑ $5,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | Laurenman | ↑ $4,600 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 147d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↑ $4,700 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 147d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↑ $4,800 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 147d | EddyAncogld | ↓ $4,300 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,550 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 147d | Jopeiedepoeie | ↑ $5,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | Lottedepottie | ↑ $5,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,649 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | EddyAncogld2 fills | ↓ $4,100 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,029 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 147d | KVVN | ↓ $4,100 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,399 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 148d |  Alicia | ↑ $4,700 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,719 | +$76 +2.8% | 4 |
| 148d | EddyAncogld3 fills | ↓ $4,300 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,215 | +$191 +2.6% | 4 |
| 149d | pechenka2311 | ↑ $4,600 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,195 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 149d | EddyAncogld | ↑ $4,600 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$29 +1.0% | 4 |
| 149d |  CoinTrick | ↓ $4,400 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,030 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 149d | VNINVESTOR | ↑ $4,600 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | −$152 −12% | — |
| 150d | EddyAncogld | ↑ $4,850 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 150d | EddyAncogld | ↑ $4,750 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,870 | +$21 +1.1% | 4 |
| 151d | EddyAncogld | ↑ $4,850 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$30 +1.5% | 4 |
| 152d | EddyAncogld2 fills | ↓ $4,100 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$107 +1.5% | 4 |
| 152d |  AlAhmeda | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$15 +1.4% | 4 |
| 152d |  Eric0182 fills | ↑ $4,900 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,746 | −$67 −2.5% | — |
| 152d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,898 | +$65 +3.4% | 4 |
| 153d | Brikman | ↑ $5,400 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,960 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 154d | UESSSE45 | ↑ $4,900 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,867 | +$15 +0.8% | 4 |
| 154d | EddyAncogld | ↑ $5,100 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,005 | −$25 −0.8% | — |
| 154d | C03B3 fills | ↑ $4,850 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,583 | −$438 −7.8% | — |
| 154d | EddyAncogld | ↑ $4,900 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$89 +1.8% | 4 |
| 157d | njhkhjlbjh | ↑ $5,000 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,649 | +$51 +3.1% | 4 |
| 158d | Alicia | ↓ $4,300 | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | −$242 −24% | — |
| 159d |  weloi | ↑ $5,400 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 159d | CoinTrick | ↓ $4,500 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 159d | AiBird | ↓ $4,500 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,229 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 159d | AiBird | ↓ $4,400 | BuyYes36¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$1,926 +179% | 4 |
| 159d | C03B3 fills | ↓ $4,500 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $4,332 | +$1,804 +42% | 4 |
| 161d | Cbb.2 fills | ↓ $4,100 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,210 | +$170 +4.0% | 4 |
| 161d | Mchael | ↑ $5,400 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,567 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 |
| 162d | Rich-Try | ↑ $5,400 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$18 +1.5% | 4 |
| 162d | This-Swath | ↓ $4,550 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,223 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 162d |  nolygon | ↑ $5,000 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,255 | −$233 −10% | — |
| 162d | pechenka2311 | ↑ $4,900 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,281 | −$111 −8.7% | — |
| 162d | Alicia2 fills | ↓ $4,400 | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $3,025 | +$3,025 +100% | — |
| 162d | C03B | ↓ $4,550 | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$1,352 +108% | 4 |
| 162d | C03B | ↑ $4,850 | BuyNo54¢ → 100¢ | $6,089 | +$5,222 +86% | 4 |
| 164d | Eric018 | ↑ $4,900 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,644 | +$926 +56% | 4 |
| 164d | C03B2 fills | ↓ $4,600 | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $4,069 | +$2,981 +73% | 4 |
| 164d | pechenka2311 | ↑ $4,900 | BuyNo58¢ → 100¢ | $1,246 | +$901 +72% | 4 |
| 164d | VNINVESTOR | ↓ $4,500 | SellNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,088 | +$1,088 +100% | — |
| 165d | Cbb. | ↑ $5,200 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$52 +1.0% | 4 |
| 165d | Cbb. | ↑ $5,100 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$300 +10% | 4 |
| 165d | Cbb. | ↓ $4,300 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$204 +10% | 4 |
| 165d | Cbb. | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$72 +3.6% | 4 |
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for ↓ $4,500 means the market gives it about 100%.