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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Al Zour Refinery | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Abqaiq oil processing facility | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Safaniya Field | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Ghawar Field | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Ras Laffan Industrial City | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Ras Tanura | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Khurais Field | 0% | — | — | <1¢ · 17¢ (17¢) | — | — |
| Habshan Field/Processing Complex | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Burj Khalifa | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| East–West Pipeline | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Leviathan Field | 0% | — | — | <1¢ · 5¢ (5¢) | — | — |
| Ruwais Refinery | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 206d | zxc368 | Ghawar Field | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,582 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d | zxc368 | Safaniya Field | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,448 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | zxc368 | Al Zour Refinery | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,317 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | zxc368 | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,305 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 208d | Huludubu | Abqaiq oil processing facility | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | +$70 +5.7% | 20 |
| 208d | Huludubu | Safaniya Field | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | +$73 +5.9% | 20 |
| 212d | ScottRoth2230 | Al Zour Refinery | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | −$152 −14% | — |
| 212d | tai-pan | Al Zour Refinery | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | −$140 −14% | — |
| 212d |  Oompa-Loompa | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | +$44 +3.9% | 20 |
| 213d | Sofoklis | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,426 | −$79 −5.6% | — |
| 213d |  autisem | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | +$78 +5.6% | 20 |
| 215d | ScottRoth2230 | Al Zour Refinery | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,692 | +$505 +30% | 20 |
| 215d | Sofoklis | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,851 | +$79 +4.3% | 20 |
| 216d | AlanGutierrez1426 | Abqaiq oil processing facility | SellNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,433 | −$428 −30% | — |
| 217d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,501 | −$130 −8.6% | — |
| 217d | RamseyDoll2 fills | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,292 | +$124 +5.4% | 20 |
| 217d | Sticky-Closing2 fills | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,889 | −$130 −4.5% | — |
| 218d | AlanGutierrez1426 | Abqaiq oil processing facility | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,459 | +$567 +39% | 20 |
| 218d |  ZhangMuZhi..2 fills | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,918 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d | 888-168-888 | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | SellYes>99¢ | $1,656 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 219d | Huludubu | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$36 +3.2% | 20 |
| 219d |  therealonestepahead | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$67 +6.1% | 20 |
| 226d | Relieved-Level | Ruwais Refinery | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,047 | +$1,035 +99% | 23 |
| 228d | generalVR | Ruwais Refinery | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,522 | +$478 +19% | 20 |
| 230d | LulaVaiPerder | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$177 +8.8% | 20 |
| 237d | cashy | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | +$178 +15% | 20 |
ScienceDog603 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) means the market gives it about 0%.