| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 572 | 17¢ → 12¢ | $69 | −$31 −31% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends ended | No | 548 | 18¢ → 1¢ | $3 | −$97 −97% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 480 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 28?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 444 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 77 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Israel strike Yemen 4 or more times by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 76 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 173 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 90 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 14?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,721 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$250 −100% |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on August 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 187 | 21¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,677 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 138 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during the announcement on December 22?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 14 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,588 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$121 −100% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,086 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 134 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 58 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 134 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 31 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 91 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 22 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 73 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bitcoin above $114K on August 27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 19 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 31 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Elon Musk's security clearance revoked before August?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 422 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 60 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 413 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$190 −100% |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 157 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 750 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 57 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 96 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 263 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 250 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 274 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$32 −100% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 20 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 119 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 11 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 53¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,507 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Bitcoin above $112K on August 29?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 59 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| Maduro out by November 30, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 273 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,008 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$977 −100% |
| Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president on August 25?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 4 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Kurd" or "Kurdish" during events with Turkish president on September 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 6 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 104 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$21 −100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 90 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Ship" or "Submarine" during events with South Korean president on August 25?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 4 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16,530 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6,000 −100% |
| Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 113 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Grok 4.20 released by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 36 | 58¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$21 −100% |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 29?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 258 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Maduro out in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 9,010 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$74 −100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 86 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 26?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 961 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$54 −100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,626 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$200 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with South Korean president on August 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 51 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 673 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$41 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during events with South Korean president on August 25?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 60¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Syria" during events with Turkish president on September 25?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Turkey" 8+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 451 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 111 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$21 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,222 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 933 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$75 −100% |
| Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 620 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 388 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$31 −100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,213 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$126 −100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 60 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 439 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Bitcoin above $112K on August 27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 17 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Trump say "F-35" during events with Turkish president on September 25?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,049 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 613 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 150 | 63¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$95 −100% |
| Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 443 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$48 −100% |
| Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 43 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 87 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$21 −100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,661 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$94 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Trump" during events with Polish president on September 3?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,782 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$84 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Congo" during events with Polish president on September 3?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,741 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$200 −100% |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 34 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 26 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,019 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$101 −100% |
| Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 903 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$126 −100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 21 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 746 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$88 −100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 65 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
