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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| xAI | 100% | +58 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Meta | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Zhipu AI | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mistral | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| OpenAI | 100% | +18 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Nvidia | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 01A1 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 295d | yougotme | Alibaba | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,098 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 295d | Contrarian - 7451 | Alibaba | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,105 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 296d |  elmcap2 | 01A1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,919 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 296d | elmcap22 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,402 | +$135 +1.6% | 4 |
| 296d | elmcap22 fills | Zhipu AI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,705 | +$51 +0.7% | 4 |
| 296d | elmcap24 fills | Alibaba | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,706 | +$73 +0.9% | 4 |
| 296d | elmcap2 | Nvidia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,897 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 296d | elmcap24 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,667 | +$61 +0.5% | 4 |
| 296d | elmcap2 | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,131 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 296d | aikko | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,392 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 296d | 0x04b4…8d0b | Alibaba | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 298d |  CoffeeLover | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 299d | elmcap22 fills | Meta | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,482 | +$51 +0.9% | 4 |
| 300d |  BeneGesseritVoice | Anthropic | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,648 | +$20 +0.6% | 4 |
| 301d | borchi5 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,869 | +$323 +3.3% | 4 |
| 302d | 0xDB5 | Anthropic | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | −$20 −1.9% | — |
| 308d |  lmtfalone2 fills | Anthropic | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,739 | −$124 −3.3% | — |
| 311d | iliabouchouev | DeepSeek | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$12 +0.6% | 4 |
| 314d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Meta | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,198 | −$21 −0.9% | — |
| 317d | datawitch | Anthropic | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,288 | +$108 +4.7% | 4 |
| 319d | borchi | Nvidia | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,729 | +$39 +1.4% | 4 |
| 325d | 0xDba78EAeC18Da2455d4b78De38828C | Nvidia | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,009 | −$47 −2.3% | — |
| 325d |  Justitia | DeepSeek | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,663 | −$41 −2.4% | — |
| 327d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Anthropic | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,744 | +$54 +3.1% | 4 |
| 327d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | DeepSeek | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$27 +2.5% | 4 |
| 330d | 0xDba78EAeC18Da2455d4b78De38828C | Nvidia | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$37 +2.5% | 4 |
| 333d | Certify01482 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $2,800 | +$498 +18% | 4 |
| 348d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | Nvidia | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,115 | +$216 +6.9% | 4 |
| 371d | supahao | Alibaba | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $1,100 | −$1,100 −100% | 4 |
| 386d | dunbok23 | Meta | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$60 +6.0% | 4 |
| 387d | cutepuppy | Mistral | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$47 +4.7% | 4 |
| 388d | cutepuppy | DeepSeek | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$106 +8.1% | 4 |
| 519d | Justitia | Alibaba | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,529 | −$270 −18% | — |
| 523d | ee1eiu8 | Anthropic | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | +$416 +35% | 4 |
| 556d | Drexen | DeepSeek | SellYes34¢ → 0¢ | $20,061 | +$20,061 +100% | — |
| 557d | Jaxorian | DeepSeek | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $38,353 | +$20,651 +54% | 4 |
| 557d | Lysren | DeepSeek | SellYes31¢ → 0¢ | $9,922 | +$9,922 +100% | — |
| 558d | Amdaris | DeepSeek | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $21,764 | +$10,242 +47% | 4 |
| 563d | Kylora | Anthropic | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $31,453 | −$17,690 −56% | — |
| 563d | Alvian | Meta | SellYes33¢ → 0¢ | $7,528 | +$7,528 +100% | — |
| 563d | Kylora | Anthropic | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $31,943 | +$17,200 +54% | 4 |
| 563d | Evryxen | Meta | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $15,513 | +$7,300 +47% | 4 |
| 564d | Tyrvian | Anthropic | SellYes35¢ → 0¢ | $5,829 | +$5,829 +100% | — |
| 564d | Itherion | Anthropic | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $10,659 | +$5,996 +56% | 4 |
| 564d | Alvior | Meta | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $10,908 | −$6,136 −56% | — |
| 564d | Tyrvian | Meta | BuyYes35¢ → 0¢ | $5,965 | −$5,965 −100% | 9 |
| 565d | Thalios | Anthropic | SellYes35¢ → 0¢ | $12,310 | +$12,310 +100% | — |
| 565d | Vexlir | Anthropic | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $22,864 | +$12,311 +54% | 4 |
| 574d | Justitia | Alibaba | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$285 +20% | 4 |
| 577d | Justitia | DeepSeek | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,686 | +$881 +33% | 4 |
| 578d | Evenshade | Anthropic | SellYes44¢ → 0¢ | $36,761 | +$36,761 +100% | — |
| 579d | Xalveth | Anthropic | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $46,786 | +$36,761 +79% | 4 |
| 598d | Sylvaren | Alibaba | SellYes21¢ → 0¢ | $8,565 | +$8,565 +100% | — |
| 598d | Zirvain | Alibaba | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $32,223 | +$8,565 +27% | 4 |
| 599d |  MisTKy3 | OpenAI | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,505 | +$15 +1.0% | 4 |
| 613d |  🍝👹5 fills | xAI | BuyYes>99¢ | $47,134 | +$134 +0.3% | 4 |
| 613d | Ordon | xAI | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 613d | LFC8 | xAI | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,526 | +$230 +4.2% | 4 |
| 613d | SweetChariot | xAI | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,766 | +$153 +3.2% | 4 |
| 613d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | xAI | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | +$73 +6.4% | 4 |
throwawaylien1,987 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modelI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Anthropic means the market gives it about 0%.