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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 14% | — | +1 pts | 13¢ · 15¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Kamala Harris | 7% | — | 0 pts | 7¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Hunter Biden | 4% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11% | — | −6 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Ivanka Trump | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| J.D. Vance | 7% | +1 pts | 0 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Zohran Mamdani | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Tucker Carlson | 4% | — | +1 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| MrBeast | 2% | — | — | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Jon Ossoff | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Erika Kirk | 4% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Andy Beshear | 9% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 9¢ · 9¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Katie Britt | 2% | — | −1 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 4% | — | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Steve Bannon | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Rand Paul | 7% | — | — | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Rahm Emanuel | 19% | −1 pts | −6 pts | 16¢ · 22¢ (6¢) | — | in 69d |
| Kristi Noem | 3% | — | — | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Stephen A. Smith | 1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Oprah Winfrey | 3% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 6¢ (5¢) | — | in 69d |
| Cory Booker | 7% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 6% | — | 0 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Ted Cruz | 9% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Andrew Yang | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| LeBron James | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Mike Pence | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Michelle Obama | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Mark Cuban | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Mark Kelly | 11% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Marco Rubio | 4% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Candace Owens | 3% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Beto O’Rourke | 6% | — | +1 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Barack Obama | 3% | — | +1 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Byron Donalds | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Elon Musk | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | — | in 69d |
| Tom Brady | 4% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 5% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Josh Hawley | 5% | 0 pts | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| John Fetterman | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Roy Cooper | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Wes Moore | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Tim Walz | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7% | — | — | 7¢ · 8¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Kim Kardashian | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Jared Polis | 2% | −1 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| George Clooney | 5% | — | — | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| John Thune | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 7¢ (5¢) | — | in 69d |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 6¢ (4¢) | — | in 69d |
| Nikki Haley | 5% | — | −2 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Brian Kemp | 6% | — | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Phil Murphy | 12% | −1 pts | −57 pts | 10¢ · 14¢ (4¢) | — | in 69d |
| Jon Stewart | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Elise Stefanik | 3% | −2 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Gina Raimondo | 9% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 8¢ · 10¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Bernie Sanders | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Greg Abbott | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Raphael Warnock | 10% | — | — | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| J.B. Pritzker | 7% | — | — | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Ron DeSantis | 15% | 0 pts | +4 pts | 14¢ · 16¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Liz Cheney | 3% | −1 pts | −3 pts | <1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | — | in 69d |
| Don Lemon | 7% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Pete Buttigieg | 26% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 23¢ · 30¢ (7¢) | $309 | in 69d |
| Matt Gaetz | 4% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 6¢ (5¢) | $70.1 | in 69d |
| Donald Trump | 4% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $10.9 | in 69d |
| Hillary Clinton | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $5.48 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d |  mombil | Stephen A. Smith | BuyNo93¢ → 99¢ | $1,273 | +$83 +6.5% | 20 |
| 19d | Retired-Davis | Beto O’Rourke | SellNo95¢ → 94¢ | $1,058 | +$12 +1.1% | — |
| 19d | Retired-Davis | Steve Bannon | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,242 | −$23 −1.8% | — |
| 19d | Retired-Davis | Andy Beshear | SellNo98¢ → 91¢ | $1,667 | +$116 +6.9% | — |
| 21d | lug | Gavin Newsom | SellNo85¢ → 86¢ | $3,267 | −$38 −1.2% | — |
| 42d | simpleman | J.D. Vance | SellNo96¢ → 93¢ | $1,294 | +$36 +2.8% | — |
| 47d | mombil2 fills | Ivanka Trump | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $4,193 | +$58 +1.4% | 20 |
| 47d | sdiff123 | Andy Beshear | SellNo93¢ → 91¢ | $1,023 | +$19 +1.8% | — |
| 51d |  tetrase | Donald Trump | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $2,154 | +$35 +1.6% | 24 |
| 77d | sdiff123 | Andy Beshear | BuyNo87¢ → 91¢ | $2,218 | +$98 +4.4% | 20 |
| 90d | i2dt | Cory Booker | BuyNo92¢ → 93¢ | $1,141 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 90d |  Belgaron | Pete Buttigieg | BuyNo88¢ → 74¢ | $1,070 | −$172 −16% | 28 |
| 90d | Belgaron | Donald Trump | BuyNo87¢ → 96¢ | $1,361 | +$145 +11% | 29 |
| 91d | Papiqiq9 | Donald Trump | BuyYes33¢ → 4¢ | $2,100 | −$1,862 −89% | 42 |
| 94d | mombil | Byron Donalds | BuyNo95¢ → >99¢ | $1,781 | +$93 +5.2% | 20 |
| 94d | mombil | Hillary Clinton | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,057 | +$29 +2.7% | 23 |
| 94d | mombil | Liz Cheney | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $1,311 | +$72 +5.5% | 20 |
| 98d | 0x8931…a90c | Barack Obama | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,744 | +$23 +1.3% | 20 |
| 98d | simpleman | Marco Rubio | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,100 | +$54 +4.9% | 20 |
| 98d | simpleman2 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyNo89¢ → 93¢ | $3,171 | +$171 +5.4% | 20 |
| 99d | simpleman2 fills | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo80¢ → 86¢ | $3,200 | +$243 +7.6% | 20 |
| 99d | simpleman2 fills | Kamala Harris | BuyNo85¢ → 93¢ | $2,600 | +$248 +9.5% | 20 |
| 99d | simpleman | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | BuyNo89¢ → 90¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 99d | simpleman | Josh Hawley | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $1,900 | +$103 +5.4% | 20 |
| 100d | mombil | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | BuyNo92¢ → 99¢ | $1,536 | +$116 +7.5% | 20 |
| 103d | mombil | Roy Cooper | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $1,529 | +$81 +5.3% | 20 |
| 103d | mombil | Katie Britt | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $2,189 | +$128 +5.8% | 20 |
| 108d | Retired-Davis | John Fetterman | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $1,011 | +$81 +8.0% | 20 |
| 108d | Retired-Davis | Andrew Yang | BuyNo88¢ → 96¢ | $1,692 | +$156 +9.2% | 20 |
| 117d |  aenews2 | Jon Ossoff | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $5,656 | +$74 +1.3% | 20 |
| 134d | charliealmanack | Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | BuyNo95¢ → 98¢ | $3,010 | +$78 +2.6% | 20 |
| 134d | charliealmanack | Oprah Winfrey | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,416 | +$86 +6.1% | 20 |
| 134d | charliealmanack | Hunter Biden | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $1,440 | +$64 +4.5% | 20 |
| 145d | aenews22 fills | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | SellNo94¢ | $3,121 | +$6 +0.2% | — |
| 162d | aenews2 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | BuyNo93¢ → 94¢ | $3,067 | +$40 +1.3% | 20 |
| 173d | Ryan13652 fills | Ivanka Trump | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $2,531 | +$126 +5.0% | 20 |
| 190d | Silver-EstimateNew account | Erika Kirk | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $2,980 | +$57 +1.9% | 23 |
| 191d | BULLISHOF | Zohran Mamdani | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $3,095 | +$24 +0.8% | 20 |
| 191d | BULLISHOF | Hunter Biden | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $3,102 | −$13 −0.4% | — |
| 191d | BULLISHOF | Hunter Biden | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $3,102 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 191d | BULLISHOF | Erika Kirk | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $3,030 | +$54 +1.8% | 20 |
| 191d | BULLISHOF | Chelsea Clinton | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $2,632 | −$136 −5.2% | — |
| 191d | BULLISHOF | Chelsea Clinton | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $2,632 | +$136 +5.2% | 20 |
| 198d | mombil | Mike Pence | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $1,712 | +$105 +6.2% | 20 |
| 200d | mombil | Chelsea Clinton | BuyNo93¢ → 99¢ | $1,307 | +$82 +6.3% | 20 |
| 212d | Retired-Davis | Stephen A. Smith | SellNo93¢ → 99¢ | $1,042 | −$76 −7.3% | — |
| 219d |  AngryRhino | Rand Paul | SellNo90¢ → 94¢ | $3,468 | −$124 −3.6% | — |
| 231d | Unwieldy-Detector | MrBeast | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $2,270 | −$28 −1.2% | — |
| 235d | anciano | Zohran Mamdani | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,048 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 242d | Retired-Davis2 fills | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo80¢ → 86¢ | $2,386 | +$190 +8.0% | 20 |
| 251d | Unwieldy-DetectorNew account | MrBeast | BuyNo98¢ | $2,302 | −$4 −0.2% | 21 |
| 258d | agent0179 | Hunter Biden | SellNo96¢ | $1,140 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | execute83 | Hunter Biden | BuyNo96¢ | $1,555 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | agent0179 | Hunter Biden | BuyNo96¢ | $1,140 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | mombil | Kamala Harris | BuyNo66¢ → 93¢ | $1,377 | +$564 +41% | 20 |
| 267d |  LieutenantMiloMinderbinder | Oprah Winfrey | SellNo86¢ → 97¢ | $1,657 | −$209 −13% | — |
| 294d | AngryRhino | Rand Paul | BuyNo84¢ → 94¢ | $5,111 | +$590 +12% | 20 |
| 295d | Retired-Davis | Marjorie Taylor Greene | BuyNo87¢ → 96¢ | $3,742 | +$405 +11% | 20 |
| 295d | Retired-Davis | Glenn Youngkin | BuyNo87¢ → 93¢ | $1,607 | +$103 +6.4% | 20 |
| 295d | Retired-Davis | Wes Moore | BuyNo86¢ → 97¢ | $1,247 | +$159 +13% | 20 |
ImJustKen4,201 shares
CryptoPlaybook700 shares
Car596 sharesBelgaron2,050 shares
bernardbulletin1,005 shares
Nancy.Pelosi461 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 14¢ for Gavin Newsom means the market gives it about 14%.