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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,233 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,413 | +$17 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,985 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 297d | offilm | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 297d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,151 | +$32 +0.2% | 4 | |
| 298d | radek44 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,035 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 298d | almost-never | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,351 | +$37 +0.2% | 4 |
| 298d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo100¢ | $1,044 | −$5 −0.5% | — | |
| 298d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,096 | +$4 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 298d | dwFqcd4Z | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,578 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 300d | IlliaC | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,690 | +$32 +1.9% | 4 |
| 301d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,710 | +$41 +2.4% | 4 | |
| 301d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,268 | −$124 −2.9% | — | |
| 302d | SlenderMan | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$11 +0.8% | 4 |
| 303d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,153 | +$175 +8.1% | 4 | |
| 304d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$9 +0.7% | 4 | |
| 308d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,963 | +$37 +1.9% | 4 | |
| 311d | cqs4 fills | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $10,411 | +$1,619 +16% | 4 |
| 313d | jinjinLi | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | +$24 +2.3% | 4 |
| 315d | Trump2028 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,115 | +$47 +1.5% | 4 |
| 315d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,166 | +$44 +2.0% | 4 | |
| 316d | hideo | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,567 | −$101 −3.9% | — |
| 320d | FragMalDenRalle2 fills | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,082 | −$181 −4.4% | — |
| 323d | Thombg | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | +$43 +3.8% | 4 |
| 326d | blackbach3 fills | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $12,516 | +$1,007 +8.0% | 4 |
| 328d | Thirsty-PrivacyNew account | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | +$69 +5.6% | 6 |
| 329d | Warlike-Horn | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,818 | +$203 +5.3% | 4 |
| 329d | tradervader | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,564 | −$216 −8.4% | — |
| 330d | tradervader | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$112 +11% | 4 |
| 330d | gongwuyuan | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,404 | +$160 +11% | 4 |
| 331d | Carpfisher | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,405 | +$345 +14% | 4 |
| 334d | slowf | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | −$171 −14% | — |
| 334d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,468 | −$183 −12% | — | |
| 335d | narcissistsgod | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $15,000 | +$1,270 +8.5% | 4 |
| 338d | Derbob | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$90 +8.4% | 4 |
| 346d | FragMalDenRalle | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,710 | +$126 +2.7% | 4 |
| 350d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,145 | −$134 −6.3% | — | |
| 350d | consulting | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,861 | −$79 −4.3% | — |
| 354d | AntonPrag2 fills | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,710 | +$228 +4.0% | 4 |
| 355d | scuf | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,403 | −$214 −6.3% | — |
| 369d | dwFqcd4Z5 fills | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $13,615 | +$1,085 +8.0% | 4 |
| 370d | Rainbow-Jereme4 fills | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $23,970 | −$4,530 −19% | — |
| 371d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyYes9¢ → 0¢ | $2,237 | −$2,237 −100% | 10 | |
| 371d | scuf | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,915 | +$219 +7.5% | 4 |
| 386d | alwaysOn | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,646 | +$105 +6.4% | 4 |
| 411d | Fiskantes | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | −$127 −10% | — |
| 411d | cezarn1323 fills | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $18,499 | +$1,956 +11% | 4 |
| 414d | cieuiehduehduhed | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,611 | −$246 −15% | — |
| 417d | Rainbow-Jereme8 fills | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $30,447 | +$6,219 +20% | 4 |
| 418d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$319 +16% | 4 | |
| 425d | amused85 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $3,473 | −$923 −27% | — |
| 428d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $3,960 | −$1,117 −28% | — | |
| 428d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $3,805 | +$1,367 +36% | 4 | |
| 431d | Wewillwininthisandeveryworld | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $2,721 | −$2,721 −100% | 7 |
| 431d | Jkm123 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $6,572 | −$6,572 −100% | 7 |
| 432d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellYes30¢ → 0¢ | $1,681 | +$1,681 +100% | — | |
| 434d | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,227 | +$411 +33% | 4 | |
| 434d | CuriousSisyphus | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | SellYes25¢ → 0¢ | $1,471 | +$1,471 +100% | — |
| 435d | Imperial1 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$415 +41% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.