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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ missed penalties | 100% | +46 pts | +76 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 10+ missed penalties | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 15+ missed penalties | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20+ missed penalties | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 25+ missed penalties | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 30+ missed penalties | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 35+ missed penalties | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40+ missed penalties | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 45+ missed penalties | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50+ missed penalties | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97d | 0x8931…a90c2 fills | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,497 | +$35 +0.1% | 4 |
| 97d | 0x8931…a90c | 15+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,984 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 97d | ndb1 | 20+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,332 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 97d | ndb1 | 15+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,797 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 97d | ndb1 | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,347 | +$32 +0.7% | 4 |
| 97d |  AlexiosV | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,952 | +$48 +2.5% | 4 |
| 98d | ptaszek | 15+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,040 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 98d | yonose | 25+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,560 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 99d |  Flowrence4 fills | 15+ missed penalties | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,887 | +$46 +0.5% | 4 |
| 99d | Flowrence2 fills | 20+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,305 | +$24 +0.3% | 4 |
| 99d | Flowrence2 fills | 25+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,907 | +$16 +0.3% | 4 |
| 99d | Flowrence4 fills | 30+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,448 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 99d |  tomatosauce2 | 20+ missed penalties | SellNo>99¢ | $1,861 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 100d | Flowrence | 35+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,556 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 100d | tomatosauce29 fills | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $22,939 | +$210 +0.9% | 4 |
| 103d | Flowrence | 45+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,401 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 103d | Flowrence | 50+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,525 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 106d | Flowrence2 fills | 10+ missed penalties | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,227 | −$111 −2.1% | — |
| 108d |  bau7 | 15+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,629 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 108d | AlexiosV | 15+ missed penalties | SellNo>99¢ | $1,599 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 108d |  MrFeast | 5+ missed penalties | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,000 | +$19 +0.5% | 4 |
| 108d | Reasonable-Tabby | 5+ missed penalties | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,047 | +$9 +0.9% | 4 |
| 108d |  Nik- | 5+ missed penalties | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,601 | +$36 +1.4% | 4 |
| 108d | roflingbets | 5+ missed penalties | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,962 | +$38 +1.9% | 4 |
| 110d | 0xe72b…3c9c | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | +$14 +1.3% | 4 |
| 111d | bau73 fills | 20+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,175 | +$16 +0.3% | 4 |
| 113d | Nik- | 5+ missed penalties | SellNo86¢ → 0¢ | $2,859 | +$2,859 +100% | — |
| 113d | Nik-4 fills | 5+ missed penalties | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $6,101 | −$6,101 −100% | 4 |
| 114d | bau72 fills | 25+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,300 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 114d | bau7 | 30+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,800 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 116d | yenky | 15+ missed penalties | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,089 | −$19 −0.9% | — |
| 117d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,838 | +$263 +6.8% | 4 |
| 117d | Flowrence2 fills | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,613 | +$480 +6.3% | 4 |
| 118d | tomatosauce2 | 35+ missed penalties | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,196 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 120d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$84 +7.5% | 4 |
| 124d | conotocaurius | 10+ missed penalties | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | +$216 +14% | 4 |
| 126d | yenky | 15+ missed penalties | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$108 +5.4% | 4 |
| 126d | AlexiosV | 40+ missed penalties | SellNo100¢ | $4,609 | −$23 −0.5% | — |
| 131d | AlexiosV | 40+ missed penalties | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,515 | +$50 +1.1% | 4 |
| 132d |  vinii | 15+ missed penalties | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$600 +43% | 4 |
| 132d | Snoorrason | 40+ missed penalties | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,286 | +$255 +1.3% | 4 |
| 132d |  AndreaPirlo | 20+ missed penalties | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,760 | +$240 +8.7% | 4 |
| 132d | AndreaPirlo | 25+ missed penalties | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | +$77 +5.6% | 4 |
| 133d | Snoorrason2 fills | 25+ missed penalties | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $11,546 | +$756 +6.6% | 4 |
| 133d | Snoorrason | 30+ missed penalties | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | +$33 +2.9% | 4 |
tomatosauce2144 shares
J25525112 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of penalty kicks that are missed or saved during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 5+ missed penalties means the market gives it about 100%.