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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30+ Years | 100% | +5 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| No Prison Time | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| <5 Years | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| 5–10 Years | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| 10–15 Years | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| 15–20 Years | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| 20–30 Years | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246d | ChermziKim2 fills | No Prison Time | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,791 | −$118 −1.0% | — |
| 246d |  batman9801 | 30+ Years | SellYes>99¢ | $2,110 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | JPLP | No Prison Time | SellNo>99¢ | $2,695 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | alliswell16 fills | 30+ Years | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $58,250 | +$2,062 +3.5% | 20 |
| 246d | rated6 fills | 20–30 Years | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,257 | +$128 +2.0% | 20 |
| 246d | jinsanity | 30+ Years | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,535 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d |  Ahpo | 15–20 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,091 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | standagain | 30+ Years | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,685 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 246d | monopolic | 30+ Years | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,191 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | Geobot743 | 30+ Years | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,022 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | influenz.eth2 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,140 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | influenz.eth2 fills | 20–30 Years | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,130 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 246d | influenz.eth2 fills | 15–20 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,139 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 246d | influenz.eth | 5–10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | influenz.eth | 10–15 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,040 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | influenz.eth | <5 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,040 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | rated3 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,152 | +$48 +1.5% | 20 |
| 246d | rated4 fills | 10–15 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,203 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 246d | rated5 fills | 5–10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,254 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 246d | rated5 fills | 15–20 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,254 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 246d | hollyber3 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,426 | +$79 +1.8% | 20 |
| 246d | 123asdasdv | 30+ Years | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,001 | +$91 +4.5% | 20 |
| 246d | ChermziKim7 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $92,998 | +$3,211 +3.5% | 20 |
| 246d | 0x60f7293958a1b49f25a00a6af0199cbc7a1c050 | No Prison Time | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,451 | −$33 −2.3% | — |
| 246d | hollyber | 20–30 Years | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$100 +2.0% | 20 |
| 246d | hsy5652 | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$30 +2.0% | 20 |
| 246d |  pup12 fills | 30+ Years | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,202 | +$168 +5.2% | 20 |
| 246d |  mr.ozi3 fills | 30+ Years | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $13,174 | +$628 +4.8% | 20 |
| 247d | Mignon7 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $21,022 | +$440 +2.1% | 20 |
| 248d |  Ffrcbjitefgjkoujj2 fills | 30+ Years | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,728 | +$138 +5.1% | 20 |
| 248d |  TeemuPukki2 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $18,069 | +$397 +2.2% | 20 |
| 248d |  iutwpfal | 30+ Years | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | +$55 +4.9% | 20 |
| 248d | hollyber2 fills | 30+ Years | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $10,496 | −$758 −7.2% | — |
| 248d | mcorleone | 30+ Years | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | −$94 −6.3% | — |
| 249d | cnfiguridofjnfke6 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,023 | +$472 +4.3% | 20 |
| 249d |  mlemnonny124 | 30+ Years | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $7,245 | −$683 −9.4% | — |
| 249d | winl3 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $18,801 | +$686 +3.6% | 20 |
| 249d |  GrokEnjoyer | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,250 | +$83 +2.6% | 20 |
| 250d | xNull | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,392 | +$108 +2.5% | 20 |
| 250d | Mignon | 30+ Years | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,108 | −$269 −5.3% | — |
| 250d | Ffrcbjitefgjkoujj | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,824 | +$192 +2.5% | 20 |
| 250d | rated4 fills | <5 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,203 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 250d |  flow-trader-at-optiver8 fills | 10–15 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,231 | +$63 +0.3% | 20 |
| 250d | flow-trader-at-optiver8 fills | <5 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,266 | +$28 +0.2% | 20 |
| 250d | flow-trader-at-optiver7 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $15,706 | +$484 +3.1% | 20 |
| 250d | flow-trader-at-optiver6 fills | 20–30 Years | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $14,718 | +$275 +1.9% | 20 |
| 250d | flow-trader-at-optiver8 fills | 15–20 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,220 | +$74 +0.4% | 20 |
| 250d | flow-trader-at-optiver7 fills | 5–10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,742 | +$33 +0.2% | 20 |
| 250d | mlemnonny1242 fills | 30+ Years | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$136 +3.4% | 20 |
| 250d |  .ethguy2 fills | 30+ Years | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,396 | +$245 +5.6% | 20 |
| 250d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 10–15 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,801 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 250d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,242 | +$81 +3.6% | 20 |
| 250d | wokerjoesleeper3 fills | <5 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,838 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 250d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 15–20 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,799 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 250d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 5–10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,804 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 250d | NullHyper | No Prison Time | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,910 | +$90 +4.7% | 20 |
| 250d |  0xdc3E831cad3 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $8,010 | +$405 +5.1% | 20 |
| 251d |  CryptoGoldk | 15–20 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,493 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 251d | huhaiyuan | 5–10 Years | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 251d | huhaiyuan | 5–10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,004 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
OY.Kwon10,372 sharesThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will count. Sentences rendered for separate cases (e.g. Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial on charges of benefiting the enemy related to drone flights over North Korea) will not count. If the insurrection case is formally consolidated with other cases into a single judgment, this market will resolve based on the total sentence issued for this consolidated case. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Yoon Suk Yeol is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Yoon Suk Yeol is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case. If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 30+ Years means the market gives it about 100%.