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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 35¢ → 100¢ | $29 | +$19 +186% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 26 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 171 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 51¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 219d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | BuyUp81¢ | $19 |
| 220d | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BuyYes3¢ | $2 |
| 220d | US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | BuyYes35¢ | $10 |
| 220d | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SellYes80¢ | $31 |
| 223d | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BuyYes75¢ | $29 |
| 223d | US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | BuyYes39¢ | $10 |
| 223d | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BuyYes51¢ | $5 |
| 223d | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BuyYes5¢ | $5 |
| 225d | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BuyYes26¢ | $3 |
| 226d | Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by March 31? | BuyYes31¢ | $15 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 3 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.