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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176d | Izikbuk2042 | April 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,700 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 176d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,918 | +$40 +0.3% | 4 |
| 176d | Izikbuk2042 | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,007 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 178d |  airy | April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$20 +1.0% | 4 |
| 178d | GCNO1 | April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,455 | +$45 +1.3% | 4 |
| 179d |  Opium4 | April 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,868 | +$32 +1.7% | 4 |
| 180d | Laurenman3 fills | April 30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,789 | +$307 +5.3% | 4 |
| 180d | Feisty-Stencil | April 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,723 | −$37 −2.1% | — |
| 183d | jiyge | April 30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,955 | +$156 +5.3% | 4 |
| 183d | Laurenman2 fills | April 30 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,585 | −$324 −13% | — |
| 186d | Fancyi3 fills | April 30 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $4,192 | −$667 −16% | — |
| 186d | browne2 fills | April 30 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,643 | −$535 −20% | — |
| 187d |  Valen9 | April 30 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $6,182 | +$1,191 +19% | 4 |
| 188d | mzandres | April 30 | SellYes18¢ → 0¢ | $3,375 | +$3,375 +100% | — |
| 189d |  Chucklehuck2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes22¢ → 0¢ | $2,110 | −$2,110 −100% | 8 |
| 189d |  Drizzl3r | April 30 | BuyYes21¢ → 0¢ | $1,046 | −$1,046 −100% | 4 |
| 189d | dissidentdad | April 30 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | −$400 −25% | — |
| 189d |  Analista. | April 30 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,158 | −$442 −20% | — |
| 190d |  SusanWarrenHR | April 30 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,411 | −$289 −20% | — |
| 190d | skylove2 fills | April 30 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $11,607 | −$2,288 −20% | — |
| 191d | Skinny-Class | April 30 | SellYes19¢ → 0¢ | $1,160 | +$1,160 +100% | — |
| 191d | M2sx92kljs42 | April 30 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $5,597 | +$1,400 +25% | 4 |
| 191d | M2sx92kljs422 fills | April 15 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,362 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | Skinny-Class2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes23¢ → 0¢ | $2,528 | −$2,528 −100% | 9 |
| 191d | GCNO12 fills | April 15 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,697 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | onekey09 | April 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d |  tetrase2 fills | April 15 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,986 | −$167 −5.6% | — |
| 191d |  PutoZeloTrump | April 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,661 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 192d | CiaoBilly | April 15 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,231 | −$113 −2.7% | — |
| 192d | CiaoBilly | April 30 | SellNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,898 | −$566 −30% | — |
| 192d | Icy-ElfNew account | April 30 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,949 | +$518 +27% | 12 |
| 192d | volynets | April 15 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$32 +2.1% | 5 |
| 192d | BTC-Hunter2 fills | April 15 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,916 | −$178 −6.1% | — |
| 193d |  Wan234 | April 30 | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $10,518 | −$2,796 −27% | — |
| 193d | Icy-ElfNew account | April 30 | SellNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | −$412 −40% | — |
| 193d | A69420 | April 15 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,365 | −$156 −6.6% | — |
| 194d | BTC-Hunter | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,434 | +$72 +5.0% | 5 |
| 194d | CiaoBilly | April 30 | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,147 | +$446 +39% | 4 |
| 194d | exposito3 fills | April 15 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $14,064 | +$990 +7.0% | 4 |
| 194d | Enlightened-Wasabi | April 30 | SellNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,883 | −$926 −49% | — |
| 194d | Fancyi | April 15 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,760 | −$145 −8.2% | — |
| 194d | Tender-Sombrero | April 15 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,204 | −$325 −7.7% | — |
| 195d | thevotwddweller | April 15 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,005 | +$140 +7.0% | 5 |
| 195d | browne3 fills | April 15 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $6,599 | +$1,059 +16% | 4 |
| 195d |  Tenebrus7 | April 15 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,448 | +$203 +14% | 5 |
| 195d |  MisTKy | April 30 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,914 | +$779 +41% | 4 |
| 195d | flook | April 15 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,955 | −$398 −20% | — |
| 195d | Tender-Sombrero | April 15 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$529 +13% | 5 |
| 195d | hdct | April 30 | SellNo61¢ → 100¢ | $1,149 | −$739 −64% | — |
| 195d |  PancraceRoyer | April 30 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | +$485 +42% | 4 |
| 195d | Huludubu6 fills | April 15 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $11,694 | +$1,116 +9.5% | 4 |
| 196d | JoeBlack01 | April 15 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | −$175 −13% | — |
| 196d |  Newsance | April 15 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,869 | +$246 +13% | 5 |
| 196d | beatyesterday2 fills | April 15 | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $6,929 | −$1,566 −23% | — |
| 196d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | April 30 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,022 | −$166 −16% | — |
| 196d | Contentious-Dinnerdate2 fills | April 15 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,361 | −$251 −7.5% | — |
| 196d | nonkenny90 | April 15 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,597 | −$403 −7.2% | — |
| 196d |  starbuck024 fills | April 15 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,888 | +$683 +6.9% | 4 |
| 196d | 0xe617…f251 | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$108 +5.4% | 4 |
| 196d | KiernanMeister3 fills | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $18,498 | +$949 +5.1% | 4 |
71536498207,633 shares
villy8110 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for March 31 means the market gives it about 0%.