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Polymarket wallet 0x479d647a0b3a55b87883ee7189ebb4f165b2d469 · on Polymarket since May 18, 2026 · also shown as Flickering-Ratio
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 30,000 | 81¢ → 77¢ | $22,950 | −$1,350 −5.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 16,553 | 81¢ → 76¢ | $12,597 | −$878 −6.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 5,357 | 83¢ → 98¢ | $5,223 | +$752 +17% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 20 | 81¢ → 77¢ | $15 | −$1 −5.6% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 2d | Yes | 5 | 89¢ → 86¢ | $4 | −$0 −3.9% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 5 | 39¢ → 52¢ | $3 | +$1 +32% |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 62¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 463 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$46 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 40 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.