| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 119 | 61¢ → 77¢ | $91 | +$18 +25% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 133 | 45¢ → 68¢ | $90 | +$30 +50% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 73 | 23¢ → 38¢ | $28 | +$11 +65% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 26 | 46¢ → 55¢ | $14 | +$2 +20% |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Ends in 158d | No | 21 | 66¢ → 65¢ | $13 | −$0 −2.3% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 28 | 34¢ → 34¢ | $10 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 71 | 25¢ → 13¢ | $9 | −$9 −50% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 8 | 72¢ → 96¢ | $8 | +$2 +34% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Ends in 129d | Yes | 9 | 79¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$0 +5.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 11 | 61¢ → 66¢ | $7 | +$1 +8.9% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 7 | 96¢ → 95¢ | $7 | −$0 −1.0% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Ends in 250d | Yes | 7 | 87¢ → 99¢ | $7 | +$1 +14% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 6 | 95¢ → 97¢ | $6 | +$0 +2.2% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 21 | 50¢ → 30¢ | $6 | −$4 −40% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 6 | 69¢ → 84¢ | $5 | +$1 +21% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 21 | 25¢ → 23¢ | $5 | −$1 −11% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 11 | 43¢ → 38¢ | $4 | −$1 −13% |
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 6 | 52¢ → 40¢ | $2 | −$1 −23% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 3 | 40¢ → 6¢ | $0 | −$1 −86% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12 | 60¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 8 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 6?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 15 | 58¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 5 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 5 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 9 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 24 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Spain leading at halftime?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo VillanuevaSettled - ready to redeem | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida | 20 | 56¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 20 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Senegal leading at halftime?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 2?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 13 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 6 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo KwonSettled - ready to redeem | Alejandro Moro Canas | 5 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | New York Yankees | 6 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 6 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 13 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 7 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 7 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - July 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 77¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Athletics | 5 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 21 | 62¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela RuseSettled - ready to redeem | Emma Navarro | 5 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresSettled - ready to redeem | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 | 35¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles AngelsSettled - ready to redeem | Baltimore Orioles | 25 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 19 | 38¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 9 | 35¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSettled - ready to redeem | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 28?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4 | 52¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 8 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Milwaukee Brewers | 5 | 72¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij RodionovSettled - ready to redeem | Jurij Rodionov | 6 | 88¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | OG | 6 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 6 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 15 | 53¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 7 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Boston Red Sox | 5 | 66¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Detroit Tigers | 8 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 18 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 12 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 17 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 48¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 5 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Spread: France (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Norway | 11 | 58¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to ScoreSettled - ready to redeem | No | 6 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Brazil leading at halftime?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 20 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 6 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 8 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Qatar | 9 | 53¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| ITF Gdansk: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Daria KuczerSettled - ready to redeem | Amarissa Kiara Toth | 8 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 17 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 84¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 1?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 5 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 34 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 6?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 7 | 54¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 5 | 53¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 6 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 13 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Curaçao | 9 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 55¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5Settled - ready to redeem | Over | 5 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - July 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 64¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
