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Polymarket wallet 0xcd1176a03ab7339a7a20a7b92679f9b76573f2e4 · on Polymarket since Oct 10, 2026 · also shown as Tidy-Hull-Arrogance
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?Ends in 7d | No | 788 | 53¢ → 72¢ | $564 | +$146 +35% |
| Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 291 | 34¢ → 97¢ | $282 | +$182 +182% |
| Will France pass a national budget by December 31?Ends in 67d | No | 176 | 57¢ → 46¢ | $81 | −$19 −19% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 95 | 75¢ → 82¢ | $77 | +$6 +8.7% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 176d | Yes | 435 | 23¢ → 17¢ | $72 | −$28 −28% |
| France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 208 | 24¢ → 16¢ | $32 | −$18 −35% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 19 above $70?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 352 | 68¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$240 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4d | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? | BuyNo53¢ | $431 |
| 6d | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo75¢ | $71 |
| 6d | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes24¢ | $52 |
| 6d | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SellNo74¢ | $123 |
| 6d | Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026? | BuyYes26¢ | $4 |
| 6d | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo75¢ | $125 |
| 6d | Paris curfew by October 31? | BuyYes11¢ | $16 |
| 6d | Paris curfew by October 21? | BuyYes6¢ | $16 |
| 6d | Paris curfew by October 19? | BuyYes3¢ | $1 |
| 6d | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 19 above $70? | BuyYes68¢ | $243 |
| 13d | Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | BuyYes87¢ | $81 |
| 13d | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | BuyNo57¢ | $102 |
| 13d | Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026? | BuyNo34¢ | $103 |
| 13d | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $70? | BuyYes66¢ | $101 |
| 13d | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BuyYes23¢ | $103 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 6 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.