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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 84% | −2 pts | +2 pts | 83¢ · 85¢ (2¢) | — | in 250d |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 174d |
| Bruno Retailleau | 54% | — | −4 pts | 52¢ · 55¢ (3¢) | — | in 250d |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 7% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 5¢ · 8¢ (3¢) | — | in 176d |
| François Asselineau | 12% | — | −1 pts | 10¢ · 13¢ (3¢) | — | in 250d |
| Marine Tondelier | 29% | +1 pts | −3 pts | 28¢ · 30¢ (2¢) | — | in 250d |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 5% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Xavier Bertrand | 3% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 250d |
| Karim Bouamrane | 5% | — | — | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 6% | +1 pts | 0 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Olivier Faure | 5% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 250d |
| Gérald Darmanin | 4% | 0 pts | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 176d |
| François Bayrou | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Carole Delga | 5% | — | 0 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Fabien Roussel | 87% | — | +1 pts | 85¢ · 88¢ (3¢) | — | in 250d |
| Manuel Bompard | 5% | — | — | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Philippe de Villiers | 5% | — | — | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Jean Castex | 5% | — | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (<1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 7¢ (3¢) | — | in 176d |
| François Ruffin | 20% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 18¢ · 21¢ (3¢) | — | in 250d |
| Mathilde Panot | 4% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Michel Barnier | 6% | — | 0 pts | 6¢ · 6¢ (<1¢) | — | in 250d |
| Delphine Batho | 10% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 9¢ · 10¢ (2¢) | — | in 176d |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 6% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $2.53K | in 176d |
| Élisabeth Borne | 7% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 6¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Clémentine Autain | 2% | −1 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 250d |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6% | 0 pts | — | 5¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Valérie Pécresse | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Manuel Valls | 4% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 176d |
| Jordan Bardella | 12% | +4 pts | +4 pts | 8¢ · 15¢ (7¢) | $1.03K | in 250d |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 93% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 92¢ · 94¢ (2¢) | $861 | in 250d |
| Bally Bagayoko | 6% | +3 pts | +3 pts | 4¢ · 9¢ (5¢) | $628 | in 176d |
| David Lisnard | 81% | — | +3 pts | 80¢ · 81¢ (1¢) | $445 | in 250d |
| François Hollande | 22% | +2 pts | −5 pts | 21¢ · 23¢ (2¢) | $353 | in 250d |
| Ségolène Royal | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $350 | in 250d |
| Jérôme Guedj | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $219 | in 176d |
| Teddy Riner | 4% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | $200 | in 176d |
| Éric Zemmour | 77% | −3 pts | −6 pts | 75¢ · 78¢ (3¢) | $182 | in 250d |
| Édouard Philippe | 83% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 81¢ · 85¢ (4¢) | $91.3 | in 250d |
| Sarah Knafo | 19% | — | +3 pts | 17¢ · 20¢ (3¢) | $58.4 | in 176d |
| Gabriel Attal | 21% | −1 pts | −7 pts | 18¢ · 24¢ (6¢) | $50 | in 250d |
| Dominique de Villepin | 33% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 31¢ · 34¢ (3¢) | $40.4 | in 250d |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 71% | +3 pts | +1 pts | 67¢ · 75¢ (8¢) | $30 | in 250d |
| Marine Le Pen | 92% | — | — | 91¢ · 93¢ (2¢) | $6.43 | in 250d |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 87% | +2 pts | −2 pts | 85¢ · 88¢ (3¢) | $5 | in 176d |
| Juan Branco | 6% | — | −2 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | $1.21 | in 176d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h |  DFK | Sébastien Lecornu | SellNo94¢ | $1,865 | −$0 −0.0% | — |
| 2d |  ThanksGivingTurkey1001 | Raphaël Glucksmann | BuyYes86¢ → 84¢ | $4,338 | −$95 −2.2% | 10 |
| 12d | resuildde | Raphaël Glucksmann | BuyYes86¢ → 84¢ | $1,670 | −$37 −2.2% | 10 |
| 26d |  0xdc3E831cad | François Hollande | BuyNo50¢ → 78¢ | $2,118 | +$1,209 +57% | 30 |
| 28d | Vusion | Sarah Knafo | SellNo93¢ → 82¢ | $1,461 | +$181 +12% | — |
| 34d |  Fuentes31 | David Lisnard | BuyNo41¢ → 19¢ | $1,000 | −$526 −53% | 30 |
| 35d | DFK3 fills | Jordan Bardella | BuyNo88¢ | $5,118 | −$2 −0.0% | 18 |
| 42d | korETHja | Édouard Philippe | SellYes84¢ → 83¢ | $1,345 | +$20 +1.5% | — |
| 46d | DFK | Marine Le Pen | BuyYes88¢ → 92¢ | $1,541 | +$70 +4.5% | 18 |
| 54d | Fuentes31 | Sarah Knafo | SellYes36¢ → 19¢ | $1,766 | +$858 +49% | — |
| 99d | DIDI8686 | Marine Le Pen | SellYes90¢ → 92¢ | $1,070 | −$24 −2.2% | — |
| 108d | StudentMoney | Marine Le Pen | BuyYes82¢ → 92¢ | $1,230 | +$152 +12% | 22 |
| 108d | StudentMoney | Jordan Bardella | BuyNo80¢ → 88¢ | $4,311 | +$427 +9.9% | 23 |
| 145d |  nicoco89 | Laurent Wauquiez | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $2,882 | +$202 +7.0% | 10 |
| 163d | korETHja | Édouard Philippe | BuyYes87¢ → 83¢ | $1,337 | −$61 −4.6% | 19 |
ThanksGivingTurkey10015,139 shares
FrozenParasite774 shares
archaic545 shares
beansontoasts490 shares
DontTrustMe200 shares
LornaPredicts394 sharesThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 84¢ for Raphaël Glucksmann means the market gives it about 84%.