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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | +72 pts | +90 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 10 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 17 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132d | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,356 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 132d | Reasonable-TabbyNew account | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,255 | +$98 +1.1% | 21 |
| 133d | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,461 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 133d | December 31 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $7,131 | +$1,000 +14% | 20 | |
| 133d | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $26,452 | +$282 +1.1% | 20 | |
| 133d | December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | +$30 +2.1% | 20 | |
| 133d | December 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,005 | +$409 +6.8% | 20 | |
| 133d | December 31 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | −$64 −6.4% | — | |
| 134d | 101010101011 | December 31 | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,392 | +$1,125 +81% | 20 |
| 135d | LupedeZh | December 31 | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,525 | +$1,414 +93% | 20 |
| 204d | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,229 | −$1,229 −100% | 20 | |
| 205d | Trader099 | March 31 | BuyYes44¢ → 0¢ | $4,228 | −$4,228 −100% | 22 |
| 212d | redpi | December 31 | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $15,797 | +$15,797 +100% | — |
| 212d | daishu | December 31 | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $15,649 | +$15,649 +100% | — |
| 212d | fivexi | December 31 | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $16,365 | +$16,365 +100% | — |
| 212d | starbr | December 31 | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $10,775 | +$10,775 +100% | — |
| 213d | daishu | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $15,649 | −$15,649 −100% | 20 |
| 213d | fivexi | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $16,365 | −$16,365 −100% | 20 |
| 213d | redpi | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $15,797 | −$15,797 −100% | 20 |
| 213d | starbr | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $10,775 | −$10,775 −100% | 20 |
| 219d | shuashua4 fills | December 31 | SellYes23¢ → 100¢ | $18,036 | −$61,308 −340% | — |
| 219d | maomao111 | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $16,644 | −$16,644 −100% | 20 |
| 219d | yanyan1 | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $17,243 | −$17,243 −100% | 20 |
| 219d | lucy1 | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $13,510 | −$13,510 −100% | 20 |
| 219d | bangzi | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $14,491 | −$14,491 −100% | 20 |
| 225d | JustinMurray8742 | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,760 | −$1,760 −100% | 20 |
| 235d | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$12 +1.2% | 20 | |
| 255d | March 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,390 | −$110 −7.9% | — | |
| 260d | hit1354 | December 31 | SellNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,240 | +$2,240 +100% | — |
| 260d | mmyaha | December 31 | SellNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,920 | +$2,920 +100% | — |
| 260d | ishoudsay | December 31 | SellNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,640 | +$2,640 +100% | — |
| 260d | tiketalkdiee | December 31 | SellNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,800 | +$2,800 +100% | — |
| 261d | ishoudsay | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $2,574 | −$2,574 −100% | 20 |
| 261d | hit1354 | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $2,184 | −$2,184 −100% | 20 |
| 261d | tiketalkdiee | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $2,730 | −$2,730 −100% | 20 |
| 261d | mmyaha | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $2,847 | −$2,847 −100% | 20 |
| 265d | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,752 | +$92 +5.3% | 20 | |
| 265d | January 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,314 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 266d | yyzzrebirth | March 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$66 +6.4% | 22 |
| 266d | nonkenny90 | January 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,436 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 266d | kgvdotcom4 fills | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,811 | +$80 +0.3% | 20 |
| 267d | January 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,302 | −$21 −0.6% | — | |
| 267d | March 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $10,881 | +$1,915 +18% | 20 | |
| 267d | hollyber | January 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,933 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 267d | January 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $10,810 | +$644 +6.0% | 20 | |
| 268d | January 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,884 | −$118 −3.0% | — | |
| 268d | Wowiwow | January 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | −$17 −1.2% | — |
| 268d | January 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,524 | +$104 +1.2% | 20 | |
| 269d | Threadbare-Astronomy2 fills | January 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,506 | +$251 +3.0% | 20 |
| 271d | January 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,354 | +$64 +1.0% | 20 | |
| 272d | Huludubu3 fills | January 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,423 | −$82 −1.9% | — |
| 272d | January 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,565 | +$117 +2.6% | 20 | |
| 275d | January 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$38 +2.0% | 20 | |
| 276d | January 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,870 | +$274 +7.1% | 20 | |
| 277d | January 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,051 | +$66 +3.2% | 20 | |
| 277d | January 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,177 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 277d | January 17 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,702 | +$157 +1.6% | 20 | |
| 277d | January 17 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,244 | −$15 −0.2% | — | |
| 277d | January 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,198 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 278d | Huludubu2 fills | January 17 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,153 | −$28 −0.3% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.