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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +75 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 681d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,331 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 681d |  CluelessEyes2 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,311 | +$425 +6.7% | 21 |
| 681d | rpo | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,705 | +$21 +1.2% | 20 |
| 681d | tf2 | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,434 | −$36 −2.5% | — |
| 681d | tsekinming013 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,349 | +$276 +2.7% | 20 |
| 681d |  MMousse | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,150 | +$238 +2.3% | 20 |
| 681d | EGGGGGGGGGGGGGG2 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $7,179 | +$475 +6.6% | 21 |
| 681d |  Mountainman | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,523 | +$145 +9.5% | 21 |
| 681d | tf2 | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,248 | +$192 +15% | 22 |
| 681d |  vocifer | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,346 | +$196 +15% | 22 |
| 681d | h038596027355 | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,068 | +$230 +11% | 22 |
| 681d |  ilovekittens | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,692 | +$336 +12% | 22 |
| 681d | tsekinming012 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,678 | −$503 −14% | — |
| 681d | sharpwalnut | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$118 −11% | — |
| 681d | taerv534 | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,286 | +$112 +8.7% | 21 |
| 681d | ack2 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $5,298 | +$886 +17% | 22 |
| 681d |  Dropper | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,777 | +$193 +7.0% | 21 |
| 681d |  Strider-13 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,420 | +$430 +7.9% | 21 |
| 681d | ggwin2 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,350 | +$214 +6.4% | 21 |
| 681d | 0m0 | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,097 | +$146 +4.7% | 21 |
| 681d | quackerandqj | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | −$64 −6.2% | — |
| 681d |  Infringe3 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,310 | +$227 +5.3% | 21 |
| 681d |  456ythgbvcadscvb | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,481 | +$136 +5.5% | 21 |
| 681d | sharpwalnut | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,112 | +$46 +4.2% | 21 |
| 681d |  Axios | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$565 +11% | 22 |
| 681d | interstellar24 | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | −$120 −8.7% | — |
| 681d |  BlackSky123 | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,062 | +$64 +3.1% | 21 |
| 682d | birkenstocks | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | BuyNo84¢ → 0¢ | $3,292 | −$3,292 −100% | 23 |
| 682d |  XiJinPing-4782 fills | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $3,440 | +$3,440 +100% | — |
| 682d |  poorpleb | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | SellNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,379 | +$1,379 +100% | — |
GretchenWhitmersBasementSlave4,318 shares
Maegor55 sharesOn December 9, Luigi Mangione was detained as person of interest in the ongoing manhunt related to Brian Thompson. It has been reported that at the time of detainment, Mangione was in possession of a manifesto. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the manifesto written by Luigi Mangione is made public by 11:59 PM ET on December 13, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The entire manifesto must be released for this market to resolve to "Yes". If the manifesto is released with redactions, it will still count. However mere snippets or quotes will not count to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.