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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farage 60–70% | 100% | +62 pts | +64 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 249d |
| Farage <40% | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Farage 40–50% | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Farage 50–60% | 0% | −6 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Farage 70–80% | 0% | −42 pts | −42 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| Farage 80%+ | 0% | −16 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 249d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71d | Palace87092 fills | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,649 | +$16 +0.2% | 10 |
| 71d | TrueDignity | Farage 60–70% | SellYes>99¢ | $1,708 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 71d | whydoineedtodothis | Farage 40–50% | SellNo>99¢ | $3,316 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 71d | whydoineedtodothis | Farage <40% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,993 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | KiernanMeister | Farage 50–60% | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,190 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 71d |  The-Joker4 fills | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,277 | +$499 +4.4% | 10 |
| 71d | KiernanMeister | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,062 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 71d |  Hakei.2 fills | Farage 70–80% | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,319 | +$23 +0.4% | 10 |
| 71d | Hakei. | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$20 +2.0% | 10 |
| 71d |  Flipadelphia4 fills | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $11,242 | +$5,906 +53% | 10 |
| 71d | lomneivan6 fills | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $12,335 | +$11,595 +94% | 10 |
| 71d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.0% | 10 |
| 71d | whig | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,068 | +$732 +69% | 10 |
| 71d | Flipadelphia2 fills | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $4,921 | +$2,999 +61% | 10 |
| 71d | dsoperative | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$847 +75% | 10 |
| 71d | M888 | Farage 60–70% | BuyNo47¢ → 0¢ | $1,168 | −$1,168 −100% | 10 |
| 71d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$840 +72% | 10 |
| 71d | Mustafalafel4 fills | Farage 60–70% | SellYes25¢ → 100¢ | $6,524 | −$19,145 −293% | — |
| 71d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Farage 80%+ | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | −$37 −3.5% | — |
| 71d | flawfence | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,783 | +$1,417 +80% | 10 |
| 71d |  Euan | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,618 | +$1,412 +87% | 10 |
| 71d | defillama7 | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,560 | +$1,440 +92% | 10 |
| 71d |  Humble-Monk | Farage 70–80% | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $2,800 | +$2,200 +79% | 10 |
| 71d | Flipadelphia | Farage 70–80% | BuyNo53¢ → 100¢ | $2,123 | +$1,882 +89% | 10 |
| 71d | Flipadelphia2 fills | Farage 70–80% | BuyYes44¢ → 0¢ | $3,882 | −$3,882 −100% | 11 |
| 71d | defillama7 | Farage 60–70% | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $1,818 | −$1,818 −100% | 10 |
| 71d | lomneivan2 fills | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $12,848 | +$1,919 +15% | 10 |
| 71d |  Rex4162 fills | Farage 60–70% | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $3,739 | −$3,739 −100% | 10 |
| 71d | Mustafalafel2 fills | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $3,893 | +$1,499 +39% | 10 |
| 71d | Rex4162 fills | Farage 70–80% | BuyYes53¢ → 0¢ | $2,652 | −$2,652 −100% | 10 |
| 71d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,720 | +$280 +16% | 10 |
| 71d | M888 | Farage 50–60% | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,740 | +$92 +5.3% | 10 |
| 71d | panitom | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $4,544 | +$1,208 +27% | 10 |
| 71d | panitom | Farage 70–80% | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $3,526 | +$3,474 +99% | 10 |
| 71d | whig | Farage 70–80% | SellYes53¢ → 0¢ | $1,392 | +$1,392 +100% | — |
| 71d | Euan | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,708 | +$539 +32% | 10 |
| 71d | supersmard | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,382 | +$796 +33% | 10 |
| 71d |  tourists | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,610 | +$1,015 +39% | 10 |
| 71d |  twinna | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$450 +43% | 10 |
| 71d |  Cungly | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$683 +49% | 10 |
| 71d | defillama72 fills | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $4,502 | +$3,498 +78% | 10 |
| 71d | defillama7 | Farage 80%+ | SellNo61¢ → 100¢ | $9,046 | −$5,719 −63% | — |
| 71d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $2,733 | +$1,599 +58% | 10 |
| 71d | whydoineedtodothis22 fills | Farage 80%+ | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $149,290 | −$149K −100% | 13 |
| 71d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $1,704 | +$1,338 +79% | 10 |
| 71d |  seal72 fills | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo52¢ → 100¢ | $5,721 | +$5,270 +92% | 10 |
| 71d | Mustafalafel | Farage 60–70% | BuyYes4¢ → 100¢ | $1,760 | +$42,232 +2400% | 14 |
| 71d | whydoineedtodothis19 fills | Farage 60–70% | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $249,107 | −$249K −100% | 10 |
| 71d | whydoineedtodothis4 fills | Farage 70–80% | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $40,509 | +$22,178 +55% | 10 |
| 71d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Farage 70–80% | SellNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | −$669 −52% | — |
| 71d | coali10 | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo44¢ → 100¢ | $2,022 | +$2,573 +127% | 11 |
| 71d | flawfence | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo44¢ → 100¢ | $4,354 | +$5,646 +130% | 12 |
| 71d | Flipadelphia | Farage 80%+ | SellNo42¢ → 100¢ | $3,829 | −$5,334 −139% | — |
| 71d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Farage 80%+ | BuyYes57¢ → 0¢ | $1,060 | −$1,060 −100% | 10 |
| 71d | whydoineedtodothis4 fills | Farage 50–60% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $23,889 | +$137 +0.6% | 10 |
| 71d | whydoineedtodothis | Farage <40% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,425 | +$4 +0.3% | 10 |
| 71d | whydoineedtodothis | Farage 40–50% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,096 | +$16 +0.5% | 10 |
| 71d | Addarash | Farage 80%+ | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | +$684 +61% | 10 |
| 81d | StudentMoney | Farage 40–50% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | +$29 +2.4% | 10 |
| 82d |  theta-thunberg | Farage 70–80% | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,414 | −$1,414 −100% | 10 |
labistiiia1,000 shares
Glome390 shares
InsiderRadar.io323 sharesA by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Farage 60–70% means the market gives it about 100%.