| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 286 | 86¢ → 95¢ | $270 | +$24 +9.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 328 | 56¢ → 82¢ | $269 | +$84 +46% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 320 | 78¢ → 82¢ | $261 | +$10 +4.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 292 | 91¢ → 87¢ | $253 | −$12 −4.6% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 10d | Yes | 261 | 83¢ → 92¢ | $239 | +$21 +9.8% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 67d | Yes | 277 | 82¢ → 85¢ | $236 | +$9 +3.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 159 | 94¢ → >99¢ | $158 | +$9 +5.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 162 | 41¢ → 89¢ | $143 | +$76 +114% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 192 | 31¢ → 66¢ | $127 | +$67 +111% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 10d | No | 113 | 89¢ → 93¢ | $105 | +$4 +3.9% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 107 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $103 | +$11 +12% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 188 | 57¢ → 53¢ | $100 | −$8 −7.0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 3d | No | 100 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $98 | +$0 +0.1% |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 3d | No | 100 | 93¢ → 94¢ | $94 | +$1 +0.5% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 101 | 89¢ → 87¢ | $87 | −$3 −2.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 103 | 88¢ → 81¢ | $83 | −$8 −8.5% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 101 | 93¢ → 81¢ | $81 | −$13 −13% |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 103 | 76¢ → 75¢ | $77 | −$2 −2.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 10d | Yes | 108 | 55¢ → 68¢ | $73 | +$13 +23% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 101 | 73¢ → 65¢ | $66 | −$8 −11% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Ends in 9h | No | 190 | 53¢ → 29¢ | $55 | −$45 −45% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 94 | 58¢ → 53¢ | $50 | −$4 −7.8% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 3d | Yes | 157 | 31¢ → 28¢ | $43 | −$6 −11% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 104 | 48¢ → 42¢ | $43 | −$7 −14% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 67d | Yes | 108 | 61¢ → 40¢ | $43 | −$23 −35% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 217 | 54¢ → 18¢ | $39 | −$78 −67% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 189 | 28¢ → 18¢ | $33 | −$20 −38% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 107 | 39¢ → 30¢ | $31 | −$10 −25% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 99 | 32¢ → 27¢ | $26 | −$5 −17% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Ends in 99d | Yes | 104 | 36¢ → 25¢ | $26 | −$12 −32% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | No | 107 | 14¢ → 24¢ | $25 | +$10 +68% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 745d | Yes | 148 | 20¢ → 17¢ | $25 | −$5 −15% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 745d | Yes | 225 | 12¢ → 10¢ | $23 | −$4 −15% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 689 | 7¢ → 3¢ | $22 | −$26 −53% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 71d | Yes | 239 | 50¢ → 8¢ | $18 | −$101 −85% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 176d | Yes | 108 | 7¢ → 14¢ | $15 | +$8 +112% |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 247 | 9¢ → 4¢ | $10 | −$12 −53% |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 100 | 19¢ → 10¢ | $10 | −$10 −50% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 194 | 10¢ → 5¢ | $9 | −$11 −55% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 745d | Yes | 235 | 6¢ → 3¢ | $7 | −$8 −53% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 4d | No | 104 | 48¢ → 6¢ | $6 | −$44 −89% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 182 | 18¢ → 2¢ | $4 | −$28 −88% |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 176d | Yes | 133 | 6¢ → 2¢ | $3 | −$5 −59% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 3 | 96¢ → 98¢ | $3 | +$0 +2.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 108 | 12¢ → 2¢ | $3 | −$10 −80% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 745d | Yes | 32 | 8¢ → 7¢ | $2 | −$0 −15% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 4d | No | 2 | 67¢ → 95¢ | $2 | +$1 +41% |
| Trump out as President before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 1 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $1 | −$0 −0.3% |
| Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 1 | 93¢ → 94¢ | $1 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 745d | Yes | 2 | 69¢ → 66¢ | $1 | −$0 −5.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 1 | 83¢ → 82¢ | $1 | −$0 −1.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 5 | 27¢ → 19¢ | $1 | −$0 −32% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 745d | Yes | 283 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$3 −88% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 264 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$41 −100% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 246 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 658 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$84 −100% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 391 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 516 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$35 −100% |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 18 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 103 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 107 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 207 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$27 −100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 307 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 630 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 218 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$39 −100% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 504 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$130 −100% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 284 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1 | 95¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 281 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 694 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$133 −100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 281 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 534 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$51 −100% |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 109 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$39 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 215 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 173 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$43 −100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 200 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 495 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$86 −100% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 522 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$35 −100% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 146 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 214 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 333 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 105 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 564 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$77 −100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 35 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 323 | 95¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$305 −100% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 112 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 275 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 239 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$34 −100% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 212 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 330 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 538 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$121 −100% |
| Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 400 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$188 −100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 696 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$114 −100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 202 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$31 −100% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 431 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 957 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 193 | 62¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$120 −100% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 196 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$21 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 232 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$32 −100% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 980 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
