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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 880-919 | 100% | +39 pts | +76 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740-759 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 760-779 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 780-799 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800-839 | 0% | −6 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 840-879 | 0% | −36 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 920-959 | 0% | −1 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 960-999 | 0% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000+ | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53d |  OraculumNobius | 880-919 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | OraculumNobius | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d |  PredictionYogi | 880-919 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | lannnn | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,639 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | GOTOPNO1 | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,042 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | PredictionYogi | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | RickRockRick | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d |  LinaBell🦊 | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,979 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | iuH1398SI | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | UntitledUser1 | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d |  Prexpect | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | zhenni | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,398 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d |  Mei-ji | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE6 | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | Mei-ji | 920-959 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,663 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 840-879 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,044 | +$170 +1.4% | 20 |
| 53d | niuniuhgir | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | miyugyiftu66 | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,198 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | venezuelain | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,188 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | xiaojido2022 fills | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,088 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 55d |  leleko2k | 800-839 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,289 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 55d | leleko2k | 920-959 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$15 +1.1% | 20 |
| 56d | ElonSimp | 780-799 | SellNo100¢ | $1,017 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 57d | ElonSimp | 780-799 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 59d | ElonSimp | 800-839 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,955 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 60d | hetacz | 760-779 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 62d | hetacz | 720-739 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d | hetacz | 520-539 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d | Bitgod | 520-539 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,055 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 68d | Bitgod | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,059 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 71d | Bitgod | 500-519 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,083 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 73d | Bitgod | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | hetacz | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | hetacz | 440-459 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of August 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 880-919 means the market gives it about 100%.