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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| March 1 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| March 3 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| March 4 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| March 5 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| March 6 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| March 7 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| March 8 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| March 9 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| March 10 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220d | Perter55 | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,652 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  MemeDream2 fills | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  Rommel💀 | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,898 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  iutwpfal | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  MajoriT | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,241 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | dmg | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,251 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | Odysseus74 fills | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $24,275 | −$24 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | jesus9112 fills | March 10 | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $8,348 | −$5,386 −65% | — |
| 220d |  ChoosePoverty | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,173 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  JoachimPeiper | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,186 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  Totenkopf | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,456 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  4threich | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,163 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  IlliterateTrader | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,812 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  tetrase24 fills | March 10 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $196,313 | −$3,047 −1.6% | — |
| 221d | Anonretard | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,756 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | thiswhyilosemoney | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,735 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  KazLC | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $98,900 | −$99 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | Huludubu4 fills | March 10 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,729 | −$314 −2.9% | — |
| 221d |  MysticFind | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $54,945 | −$55 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | lfg3212 fills | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $144,986 | +$145 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | tableaux | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,182 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | MysticFind2 fills | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $54,940 | +$60 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | EnzoFabi | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,638 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | JamesBonder0072 fills | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $169,830 | +$170 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | TerreMoto | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,980 | −$20 −0.2% | — |
| 221d | poorsob4 fills | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $224,396 | +$684 +0.3% | 20 |
| 221d | 033033033 | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,960 | +$40 +0.2% | 20 |
| 221d | RobertoRubio | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $98,394 | −$296 −0.3% | — |
| 221d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042 fills | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $532,700 | −$1,068 −0.2% | — |
| 221d | Vital-Mathematics | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,849 | −$26 −0.2% | — |
| 221d | secondpoorest | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,695 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  elon2000 | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,692 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | wowdontrug | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,670 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  SnitchingRat | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,659 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  0xRacist | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,653 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  swimmingtoriches | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,570 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  OptimusBot | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,541 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | Bearpp | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,500 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  JJo2 fills | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $41,430 | −$44 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  willsom | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b044 fills | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $103,947 | +$446 +0.4% | 20 |
| 221d | iutwpfal | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d |  Car10 fills | March 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $175,739 | +$1,045 +0.6% | 20 |
| 221d |  BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate2 fills | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,257,113 | +$2,426 +0.2% | 20 |
| 221d | dube3 fills | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $33,368 | −$91 −0.3% | — |
| 221d |  Debosnys | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $125,866 | +$126 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | Elias.Thornwell | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,900 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | ygabyga | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,009 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d |  arjennnnn | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,980 | −$20 −0.2% | — |
| 221d |  The-Joker2 fills | March 10 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $13,906 | −$809 −5.8% | — |
| 221d | HuterJeck | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,001 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d |  PushinPsforMaine | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,532 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 221d | 0x83df…362f | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,529 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 221d | 0x83df…362f | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,554 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d |  MisTKy2 fills | March 10 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $18,336 | −$322 −1.8% | — |
| 221d | WAIT4 | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,862 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | madman666 | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,507 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | sleepin | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,818 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d |  Tenebrus7 | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,615 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
Brokie5,000 shares
GooberThaGooner2,000 shares
marcelkwkk1,356 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israel or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 2 means the market gives it about 100%.