Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 100% | — | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 15 | 100% | — | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 15 | 100% | — | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | — | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 30 | 100% | +6 pts | +18 pts | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +2 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 182d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0410 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $229,670 | −$330 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  xingaze | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,306 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | StryK4r | May 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,312 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  Valen92 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $23,000 | −$23 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | Known-Stock2 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $20,454 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  abracadabr | May 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,800 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | abracadabr | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,687 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | Valen93 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $50,632 | −$51 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  mr.ozi2 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $34,969 | −$35 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | mr.ozi | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,679 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | manchot | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | immanuelcan | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  SheepToken | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,425 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  0x8712 | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | GCNO13 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,016 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  noreasapa | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | 0xc978…aa843 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  scottilicious3 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $52,248 | −$52 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | Niseko | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $25,474 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | GCNO1 | May 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | startrader644 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,084 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 182d | 0x9902…34b32 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,820 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $49,950 | −$50 −0.1% | — |
| 182d |  ScottyNooo4 fills | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $106,385 | +$199 +0.2% | 4 |
| 182d |  scout4 fills | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $303,755 | +$690 +0.2% | 4 |
| 182d |  imnice | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 4 |
| 182d | pretzel | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,086 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 182d | junkbonds | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 182d | 0x955c…990f | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 182d |  cookiejar | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $69,930 | +$70 +0.1% | 4 |
| 182d |  tripping | April 7 | BuyNo<1¢ | $7,709 | −$7,709 −100% | 20 |
| 182d | Awkward-Bride6 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $32,591 | −$33 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  Ahpo2 fills | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,549 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | JoeBlack01 | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,999 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | Cal800 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,959 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | Test6694 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,690 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | dube2 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,014 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | oidoioi | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,179 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | krokotuk | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,307 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | blunderbot | May 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,058 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  MineGuyBonds | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $71,261 | −$71 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | Cloudy-Operator | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $15,584 | −$16 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  GollumGekko | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,368 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | Ahpo2 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,657 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  yen4u3 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $15,987 | −$16 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  ITHINKTHISISGODLOVER | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,064 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | Shimmering-AgeNew account | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  tetrase8 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $135,418 | −$136 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | notawinner99 | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,573 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | notawinner99 | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  The-Joker | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  iutwpfal | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  Cungly2 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,461 | −$12 −0.2% | — |
| 183d |  Jet92 fills | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,612 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  flying-wheel2 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $39,960 | −$40 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | nonkenny90 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,933 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d |  cambridgeisaac3 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,266 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | G.laila3 fills | April 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,885 | −$53 −0.4% | — |
| 184d | nickthechopper | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,201 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 184d |  0561 | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,198 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
StingerFour789 shares
B3542 shares
KarlXX422,770 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 7 means the market gives it about 100%.