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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 10 | 0% | −25 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 100% | +3 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 11 | 100% | +18 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 12 | 100% | +16 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 13 | 100% | +12 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 15 | 100% | +7 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 14 | 100% | +13 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 196d | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,246 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 196d | esportsking2 fills | April 11 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,050 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 196d | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,769 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 196d | April 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,578 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 196d | onekey09 | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,018 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 196d | April 11 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,174 | +$60 +1.9% | 20 | |
| 196d | impaul | April 11 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$47 −4.7% | — |
| 196d | hollyber3 fills | April 11 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,244 | +$158 +3.7% | 20 |
| 196d | abbisasha1433 | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 196d | rolandoasis2938 | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 196d | M888 | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,092 | +$19 +0.9% | 20 |
| 196d | 0xe617…f251 | April 13 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$29 +1.0% | 20 |
| 196d | 0xe617…f2512 fills | April 12 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,500 | +$65 +1.2% | 20 |
| 196d | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,977 | +$23 +1.2% | 20 | |
| 196d | April 11 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,413 | +$87 +6.2% | 20 | |
| 196d | April 11 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,047 | +$157 +7.7% | 20 | |
| 196d | BrightStars2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,797 | +$260 +5.4% | 20 |
| 196d | April 12 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | +$33 +2.9% | 21 | |
| 196d | April 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,915 | −$355 −3.3% | — | |
| 196d | Kdjdjd | April 11 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,711 | +$57 +3.3% | 20 |
| 196d | Rownamhi | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,623 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 196d | hadley751adriel | April 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 196d | Tyler499 | April 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 196d | shaniakylee2263 | April 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 196d | April 12 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,954 | +$66 +2.3% | 21 | |
| 196d | April 10 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $4,563 | −$956 −21% | — | |
| 196d | shaniakylee2263 | April 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$23 +1.7% | 20 |
| 196d | hadley751adriel | April 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | +$20 +1.7% | 20 |
| 196d | Tyler499 | April 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,138 | +$20 +1.7% | 20 |
| 196d | AlanYagami-T | April 10 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,084 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 196d | April 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $151,029 | +$473 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 196d | emp992 | April 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 196d | April 10 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,197 | −$22 −1.0% | — | |
| 196d | April 15 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$32 +2.7% | 20 | |
| 196d | ethmoon... | April 10 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 196d | Hashbrown3 fills | April 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,297 | +$163 +1.8% | 20 |
| 196d | Martinette | April 10 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,323 | +$27 +1.2% | 20 |
| 196d | Sticky-Closing | April 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,660 | −$22 −1.3% | — |
| 196d | April 10 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,507 | +$93 +6.2% | 20 | |
| 197d | April 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $15,252 | +$546 +3.6% | 20 | |
| 197d | Ffcboy | April 10 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,291 | −$54 −4.2% | — |
| 197d | April 30 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $13,158 | +$1,298 +9.9% | 20 | |
| 197d | April 10 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,548 | +$355 +5.4% | 20 | |
| 197d | Awful-Forestry2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $7,931 | +$1,184 +15% | 20 |
| 197d | April 30 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $15,854 | −$972 −6.1% | — | |
| 197d | fatsloth | April 10 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,039 | −$326 −6.5% | — |
| 197d | Newshound6 fills | April 10 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $10,164 | +$1,222 +12% | 23 |
| 197d | 888-168-888 | April 30 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,138 | −$97 −8.6% | — |
| 197d | April 30 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,726 | +$136 +7.9% | 20 | |
| 197d | Sticky-Closing | April 30 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | +$132 +9.9% | 20 |
| 197d | arttheking | April 30 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,333 | +$376 +11% | 20 |
| 197d | asdf67893 fills | April 30 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $12,394 | +$1,705 +14% | 20 |
| 197d | Freedom6 | April 10 | BuyYes21¢ → 0¢ | $1,028 | −$1,028 −100% | 20 |
| 197d | April 30 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,549 | +$160 +10% | 20 | |
| 198d | 0x4784b5fd02791fcf3d2d41bf65628cd1f11a1404 | April 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,909 | +$140 +3.6% | 20 |
| 198d | 0x4784b5fd02791fcf3d2d41bf65628cd1f11a1404 | April 10 | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $3,609 | −$1,278 −35% | — |
| 198d | 0x4784b5fd02791fcf3d2d41bf65628cd1f11a1404 | April 10 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $4,145 | +$641 +15% | 24 |
| 198d | 0xe617…f251 | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$42 +1.4% | 20 |
| 198d | 0xe617…f2512 fills | April 10 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$909 +18% | 24 |
| 198d | ace | April 30 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,819 | −$137 −7.5% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for April 10 means the market gives it about 0%.