| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | Yes | 11,063 | 71¢ → 94¢ | $10,344 | +$2,443 +31% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 8,709 | 43¢ → 51¢ | $4,476 | +$769 +21% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 36,890 | 55¢ → 12¢ | $4,242 | −$16,155 −79% |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Ends in 39d | Yes | 4,375 | 53¢ → 80¢ | $3,478 | +$1,181 +51% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 11,606 | 22¢ → 24¢ | $2,728 | +$125 +4.8% |
| US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 2,888 | 58¢ → 85¢ | $2,440 | +$751 +44% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 178d | Yes | 3,262 | 31¢ → 46¢ | $1,509 | +$500 +50% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 1,678 | 83¢ → 84¢ | $1,401 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 1,545 | 74¢ → 79¢ | $1,220 | +$74 +6.4% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 3,057 | 49¢ → 40¢ | $1,207 | −$285 −19% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 3,287 | 42¢ → 34¢ | $1,108 | −$278 −20% |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 1,104 | 80¢ → >99¢ | $1,102 | +$224 +25% |
| Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 1,288 | 53¢ → 85¢ | $1,089 | +$405 +59% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 3,988 | 35¢ → 23¢ | $897 | −$493 −35% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 1,168 | 55¢ → 75¢ | $870 | +$228 +35% |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 814 | 74¢ → 91¢ | $740 | +$138 +23% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 1,000 | 63¢ → 67¢ | $670 | +$44 +7.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 915 | 58¢ → 67¢ | $608 | +$80 +15% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 8,238 | 47¢ → 7¢ | $577 | −$3,299 −85% |
| Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 622 | 70¢ → 91¢ | $565 | +$127 +29% |
| Will France pass a national budget by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 943 | 40¢ → 54¢ | $509 | +$129 +34% |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 991 | 38¢ → 38¢ | $372 | −$6 −1.6% |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 178d | Yes | 59,537 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $357 | +$119 +50% |
| JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 347 | 80¢ → 98¢ | $340 | +$63 +23% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 3,552 | 28¢ → 9¢ | $313 | −$695 −69% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 300 | 70¢ → 84¢ | $251 | +$41 +19% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Ends in 70d | Yes | 1,410 | 55¢ → 16¢ | $226 | −$547 −71% |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 2,279 | 19¢ → 9¢ | $206 | −$237 −54% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 300 | 49¢ → 68¢ | $205 | +$58 +40% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 70d | No | 250 | 74¢ → 81¢ | $202 | +$18 +9.7% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 200 | 85¢ → 98¢ | $195 | +$26 +15% |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?Ends in 435d | Yes | 414 | 35¢ → 44¢ | $180 | +$36 +25% |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 193 | 77¢ → 91¢ | $175 | +$26 +17% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Ends in 70d | No | 203 | 60¢ → 84¢ | $170 | +$49 +40% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 12d | Yes | 2,198 | 22¢ → 8¢ | $165 | −$319 −66% |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Ends in 70d | Yes | 400 | 40¢ → 40¢ | $160 | +$1 +0.8% |
| Macron out by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 3,465 | 4¢ → 4¢ | $142 | +$7 +5.1% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 1,718 | 25¢ → 8¢ | $137 | −$284 −67% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 39d | Yes | 626 | 35¢ → 22¢ | $135 | −$84 −38% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 747d | Yes | 1,000 | 5¢ → 13¢ | $127 | +$75 +143% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 425 | 15¢ → 30¢ | $125 | +$60 +91% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 130 | 76¢ → 94¢ | $123 | +$24 +25% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 1,019 | 29¢ → 12¢ | $117 | −$174 −60% |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 300 | 29¢ → 39¢ | $116 | +$29 +33% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 160d | Yes | 200 | 61¢ → 57¢ | $115 | −$7 −5.7% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 852 | 40¢ → 14¢ | $115 | −$224 −66% |
| Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 163 | 68¢ → 69¢ | $113 | +$2 +1.5% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 620 | 32¢ → 16¢ | $96 | −$100 −51% |
| New pandemic in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 84¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$12 +14% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 79¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$17 +21% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 1,343 | 18¢ → 7¢ | $87 | −$154 −64% |
| Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 109 | 76¢ → 80¢ | $87 | +$4 +4.6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 6d | No | 485 | 25¢ → 18¢ | $85 | −$35 −29% |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 121 | 54¢ → 69¢ | $83 | +$18 +27% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 350 | 36¢ → 22¢ | $77 | −$51 −40% |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 267 | 26¢ → 26¢ | $68 | −$1 −1.7% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Ends in 12d | Yes | 200 | 27¢ → 34¢ | $67 | +$13 +24% |
| US congress stock trading ban before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 1,925 | 24¢ → 3¢ | $65 | −$397 −86% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 1,121 | 29¢ → 6¢ | $62 | −$264 −81% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,610 | 9¢ → 3¢ | $53 | −$92 −63% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 140 | 57¢ → 38¢ | $53 | −$27 −34% |
| SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 55 | 45¢ → 94¢ | $51 | +$27 +109% |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 200 | 21¢ → 26¢ | $51 | +$8 +19% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 8d | Yes | 918 | 49¢ → 6¢ | $50 | −$397 −89% |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 500 | 50¢ → 10¢ | $47 | −$200 −81% |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 970 | 11¢ → 5¢ | $44 | −$63 −59% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 200 | 40¢ → 21¢ | $41 | −$39 −49% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 200 | 11¢ → 18¢ | $35 | +$13 +57% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 342 | 24¢ → 10¢ | $32 | −$50 −61% |
| Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?Ends in 97d | No | 80 | 63¢ → 40¢ | $32 | −$19 −38% |
| Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027?Ends in 160d | No | 33 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $31 | +$3 +10.0% |
| Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 200 | 8¢ → 16¢ | $31 | +$15 +94% |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 649 | 14¢ → 5¢ | $29 | −$62 −68% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 340 | 19¢ → 9¢ | $29 | −$37 −56% |
| Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?Ends in 1166d | Yes | 200 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $27 | −$3 −10% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 315 | 10¢ → 9¢ | $27 | −$5 −15% |
| Trump out as President before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 620 | 16¢ → 4¢ | $25 | −$74 −75% |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 300 | 20¢ → 8¢ | $24 | −$36 −60% |
| Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 145 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $21 | −$1 −3.3% |
| Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?Ends in 9d | Yes | 100 | 12¢ → 18¢ | $18 | +$6 +50% |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 201 | 10¢ → 7¢ | $14 | −$6 −30% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 1,000 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $11 | −$8 −42% |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?Ends in 9d | Yes | 300 | 17¢ → 4¢ | $11 | −$40 −78% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseEnds in 12d | Yes | 1,475 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $11 | −$54 −83% |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 435d | Yes | 105 | 20¢ → 10¢ | $10 | −$11 −52% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 73d | Yes | 112 | 51¢ → 8¢ | $8 | −$49 −85% |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 500 | 9¢ → 2¢ | $8 | −$37 −82% |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 100 | 24¢ → 8¢ | $8 | −$16 −69% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 100 | 61¢ → 8¢ | $8 | −$54 −88% |
| Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 7 | 60¢ → 88¢ | $6 | +$2 +48% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 9d | Yes | 1,757 | 9¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$152 −96% |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?Ends in 70d | Yes | 43 | 20¢ → 13¢ | $5 | −$3 −38% |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 100 | 53¢ → 4¢ | $4 | −$49 −93% |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 270 | 56¢ → 1¢ | $3 | −$147 −98% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 300 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $2 | −$11 −83% |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?Ends in 9d | Yes | 358 | 72¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$256 −100% |
| Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 25 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +25% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 225 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 876 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$29 −100% |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 536 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$72 −100% |
