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Polymarket wallet 0xf8743a71bc278b4be78472816b1a6ac214fe9d53 · on Polymarket since Jan 14, 2026 · also shown as Light-Cassava
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 18 | 91¢ → 100¢ | $18 | +$2 +9.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 21 | 78¢ → 35¢ | $7 | −$9 −55% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 43 | 94¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 18 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 44 | 68¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 306 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 33 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 26 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.