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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2026 | 3% | 0 pts | −9 pts | <1¢ · 6¢ (6¢) | — | in 7d |
| December 31, 2026 | 24% | — | +6 pts | 22¢ · 25¢ (3¢) | $141 | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25d | QMG-CORE3 fills | Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,734 | +$458 +9.7% | 20 |
| 58d |  Trashbag | Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,835 | +$38 +2.1% | 20 |
| 82d | QMG-CORE | Lecornu out as French PM by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$102 +9.1% | 20 |
| 119d | StudentMoney | Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,737 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 296d | StudentMoney4 fills | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $6,601 | +$1,486 +23% | 20 |
| 319d |  nicoco89 | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,263 | +$40 +3.2% | 20 |
| 322d |  emcor | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$101 +8.7% | 20 |
| 338d | nedsta2 fills | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,031 | +$235 +7.8% | 20 |
| 345d | polococo | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,890 | +$282 +5.8% | 20 |
| 348d | NSYGG3 fills | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $3,920 | +$1,308 +33% | 20 |
| 357d |  AgricultureSecretary | Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,860 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 359d | omaar123 | Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,819 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 |
| 359d |  beno1cH | Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | −$17 −1.5% | — |
| 359d |  Orwell8443 fills | Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,452 | +$223 +2.4% | 20 |
| 370d | StudentMoney2 fills | Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,622 | +$173 +6.6% | 20 |
| 373d | Kakarottt | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | SellYes41¢ → 0¢ | $1,065 | +$1,065 +100% | — |
| 373d | Hjklm | Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,407 | +$96 +6.8% | 20 |
| 374d | AntLF | Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,998 | +$439 +8.8% | 20 |
| 375d | Kakarottt | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | BuyYes78¢ → 0¢ | $1,640 | −$1,640 −100% | 20 |
Dr.PNL139 shares
Dapsy100 shares
0xdc3E831cad925 sharesOn September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for October 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 3%.