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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 9 | 100% | +1 pts | +95 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Before April | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 1 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 3 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 4 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 5 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 6 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 7 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 8 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 10 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 11 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 12 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 13 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 14 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 16 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 17 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 18 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 19 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 20 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 22 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 23 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 24 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 25 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 26 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 27 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 28 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 29 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Military action through April 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −73 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 194d | April 9 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — | |
| 194d | garbagefriends2 fills | April 9 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,825 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | phantomsc | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $67,946 | +$68 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 194d | Flimsy-Fibre | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,421 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | loser124 | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,298 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | April 9 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,074 | −$2 −0.2% | — | |
| 194d | Ordon3 fills | Military action through April 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,980 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 194d | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,334 | +$31 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 194d | Ordon | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $54,945 | +$55 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,727 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 194d | April 9 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,163 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 194d | Sloppydo2 fills | April 9 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,661 | −$50 −0.4% | — |
| 194d | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,350 | +$78 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 194d | April 9 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,013 | −$12 −0.6% | — | |
| 194d | Innocent-Terrapin4 fills | April 9 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,524 | −$109 −1.7% | — |
| 194d | dube | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,393 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | loser124 | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,600 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,742 | +$32 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 194d | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,970 | +$30 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 194d | influenz.eth8 fills | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,273 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | influenz.eth18 fills | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $28,689 | +$196 +0.7% | 20 |
| 194d | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,003 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 194d | April 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $27,961 | +$122 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 194d | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $86,189 | +$212 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 194d | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,969 | +$77 +0.7% | 20 | |
| 194d | Average-ChaliceNew account | Military action through April 30 | BuyYes1¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 35 |
| 194d | influenz.eth3 fills | April 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,600 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,506 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 194d | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,485 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 194d | Innocent-Terrapin4 fills | April 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,230 | +$73 +0.8% | 20 |
| 194d | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $86,888 | +$758 +0.9% | 20 | |
| 194d | pakukudolphi | April 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,941 | +$50 +1.0% | 20 |
| 194d | April 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,295 | +$26 +1.1% | 20 | |
| 194d | Sloppydo | April 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,709 | +$110 +1.4% | 20 |
| 194d | Innocent-Terrapin | Military action through April 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,154 | −$24 −1.1% | — |
| 194d | influenz.eth36 fills | April 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $54,920 | +$71 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | influenz.eth2 fills | April 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,783 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | April 9 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,188 | +$136 +1.9% | 20 | |
| 195d | April 9 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$18 +1.8% | 20 | |
| 195d | Siziriv7 fills | April 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,640 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv9 fills | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $26,795 | +$226 +0.8% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv8 fills | April 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,476 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv8 fills | April 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,454 | +$47 +0.2% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv4 fills | April 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,022 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv5 fills | April 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,235 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv5 fills | April 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,016 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv3 fills | April 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,693 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv4 fills | April 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,022 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | Siziriv6 fills | April 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,133 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief2 fills | April 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,694 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief2 fills | April 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,694 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief2 fills | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,694 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief4 fills | April 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,523 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief4 fills | April 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,517 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief4 fills | April 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,523 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief2 fills | April 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,694 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief2 fills | April 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,694 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief4 fills | Military action through April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,485 | +$45 +0.7% | 20 |
| 195d | BigFishSushiChief2 fills | April 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,694 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30." For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 9 means the market gives it about 100%.