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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No release by September 30 | 100% | +9 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| On or prior to September 1 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 2 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 3 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 4 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 5 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 6 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 7 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 8 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 9 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 10 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 11 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 12 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 13 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 14 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 15 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 16 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 17 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 18 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 19 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 20 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 21 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 23 | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 24 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 25 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 26 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 27 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 28 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 29 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −10 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23d | carboyant | No release by September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,507 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 23d | bZk0Uo | No release by September 30 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$366 +32% | 26 |
| 23d | dedidanc | September 30 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,407 | +$648 +46% | 28 |
| 29d | No release by September 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | +$54 +5.3% | 20 | |
| 30d | No release by September 30 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,089 | +$356 +8.7% | 20 | |
| 33d | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | No release by September 30 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,885 | +$357 +12% | 20 |
| 38d | FDSft | No release by September 30 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$286 +19% | 20 |
| 42d | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | No release by September 30 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,578 | −$223 −14% | — |
| 45d | 0xFD74d4504299cCE1c537464BdD932F8a0e6bA2a | No release by September 30 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$480 +33% | 20 |
| 59d | No release by September 30 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | +$542 +45% | 20 | |
| 61d | KiernanMeister | No release by September 30 | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | +$710 +64% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No release by September 30 means the market gives it about 100%.